HARPER’S FERRY: THE SIN OF IDOLATRY

The hypothetical statue of Harper that lives rent free in McDermott’s head

off-season profile part 8

Welcome to the eighth of a 12-part weekly write-up which will take us all the way to the start of Spring Training. Each Friday I will examine, in reverse order of last year's regular season finish, each team's situation as the off-season gets underway. I'll break down the piece into three parts: What moves need to be made, Who is getting kept, and What needs to go right in order for that team to make the postseason in 2024.

All opinions are my own, and should you disagree… well I could give you some quippy response of where you could shove that opinion, but it’s week eight and I doubt anyone is reading these openings anymore… I hope you had a nice week.

What moves need to be made?

Joey McDermott is the final profile of a non-playoff team. While he had a nice run of wins last season, he fell short of securing the fourth seed and his string of 7 consecutive seasons without a playoff appearance will continue. While last season was McDermott’s most successful run as a manager, it is made all the more frustrating by the self-inflicted gunshot wound of keeping Bryce Harper in the first round.

Yes I hear the collective groaning and yes we are going to talk about this.

McDermott made the dubious decision last season to keep Bryce Harper in the first round despite the fact he was recovering from Tommy John surgery and would miss the beginning of the season. In actuality Harper beat expectations and returned to game action on May 2nd, but would struggle with power numbers until the All-Star break, experiencing the longest home run drought of his career (37 games).

The reason for keeping Harper is an easy-to-understand one, especially for me. He’s McDermott’s favorite rostered player. I get that and can relate to it. However, the point of these articles are to suggest courses of action on how to improve teams for this season, and one can’t effectively do that without pointing out the flaws in the decision tree which led them here. So, though I relate to the idea that we want to play fantasy with our favorite players, there is no reasonable argument to say that having Harper rostered was a good decision for McDermott from a competitive standpoint. Don’t believe me? Look for yourself:

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Harper’s Ferry lost every fantasy matchup before Harper returned on May 2nd. Additionally, Harper’s Ferry posted a 7-17-1 record in the hitting categories these first four weeks (as opposed to 12-12 in pitching categories). Of all the lost categories, 7 were within: .500 point of OPS, .250 points of BA, 6 R or RBI, 1 SB, or 1 HR. If those categories are won instead of lost that constitutes a 14 W/L swing in the final standings, in which Harper’s Ferry was 6 back in the win column and 9 back in the loss column, putting him in a virtual dead heat for a playoff position.

This is not even taking into account Harper’s suboptimal performance from May 2nd to the All-Star game, where he had a total of 3 home runs from May 2nd through the end of June. Harper’s Ferry would go on to lose the HR category by a margin of 3 homers or less 4 times during that span.

The point I am trying to laboriously make here is that keeper decisions relative to value are impactful, particularly in the first several rounds. When an owner deliberately makes a decision which is obviously not in the best interest of them winning games, there shouldn’t be any surprise when they fall short. If McDermott wants to improve upon his disappointing finish last season he needs to turn his eye towards creating exciting value in the back end of his keeper stable and not handcuff himself to “favorites” who don’t help you win.

McDermott is never going to drop Harper as long as he is even somewhat productive, so I will make recommendations which do not involve selling off Harper for a draft pick.

Harper’s Ferry lacks depth in their keeper options as they only posses three, maybe four bona fide keepers. The ship may have already sailed here but McDermott should seriously look at contacting owners with excess keepers and offering a draft pick for someone viable. Richard Martindell would have been an obvious trade partner in this regard earlier in the off-season but that window may have already passed. One more reliable bat would not go amiss in this order.

Trading Logan Webb to a pitching starved team isn’t a bad idea either given that finding pitching value on the wire is one of McDermott’s strengths. However, the market isn’t favorable for finding a trade partner willing to trade a strong offensive piece for a pitcher. A few weeks ago I also would have advocated a strong push for Michael Harris II from James Swindell. If that window hasn’t closed it’s an avenue worth pursuing.

who is getting kept?

McDermott only has four players that I view as truly viable keepers, so, like before, I will briefly discuss options for the last two spots but won’t advocate for them outright because they would reflect poorly on me.

BRYCE HARPER (1)

In McDermott’s eyes, Harper pisses fountains of kool-aid and shits gold bars. He can do no wrong. Yeah occasionally he gets hurt and runs into an outfield wall, but he doesn’t mean it. He loves me. He wouldn’t deliberately hurt me. He just needs my support so he can be the best version of Bryce he can be… Also he smells like lavender blossoms.

BOBBY WITT JR (7)

If Ronald Acuna Jr didn’t exist, Bobby Witt would be getting serious buzz about whether he should be the number 1 overall player. This guy is the real deal. 30 homers, 49 steals, and the bat-to-ball skills to indicate that a .300 hitter profile is truly possible. The only blemishes are that he doesn’t walk much, hinting at some troubling Bo Bichette comps, and that he plays for the Royals so his counting stats could be underwhelming. Despite those misgivings he is a huge value at pick 7.

CHRISTIAN WALKER (7)

Walker continues to be a reliable power source with two consecutive 30+ homer seasons in a lineup which will allow for decent counting stats. He doesn’t run much and his average is ho-hum. Additionally, his underlying metrics show this may be the top end of what he can produce. Even so, at round 7 he’s still a good value, if a bit boring.

LOGAN WEBB (21)

Webb is not the type of starter I like to invest in. He had a handful of double digit strikeout games, but the loss of faith in his slider and increased reliance on his changeup indicates the lower K numbers will be the new normal for Webb. He walked very few batters last season but his strikeout rate has been trending the wrong way for two straight years. He’s going to be good, probably top 25 good, but not great. At round 21 though he’s a no doubter keeper, just… boring.

And that’s it. You could make a desperation case for Christian Javier, but last season was so horrendous for him I would be foolish to actually endorse him when you could get him for a dart throw at the end of your draft. Cease is also an intriguing option but definitely not in the second round. Ezequiel Tovar may be a trendy sleeper in some drafts but his underlying numbers are awful so invest at your own risk. Realistically the best option for McDermott is to trade a pick or two for keeper depth that matters, but that window is rapidly closing with the recent flurry of moves.

what needs to go right?

If McDermott manages to make some trades to fill out the back end of his keepers then he could probably ride Bobby Witt Jr to a lot of success, but in order for him to truly make a big leap into the top tier of teams he’ll need back end keepers or picks who have some upside potential. The poor thing about Walker and Webb as keepers is that you’re probably just hoping for them to be what you’ve already seen, and there isn’t a lot of headroom in either of their profiles. Hitting on upside guys is what wins fantasy titles, whether it be players you keep or players you draft. McDermott doesn’t have any guys like that, which means he is destined to fall middle of the pack again until he changes course.

irl team analogue:

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Some big name talent but no depth and very little excitement waiting in the wings.