BIG DESANTIS ENERGY: WHY ISN’T THIS WORKING?

Welcome to the sixth of a 12-part weekly write-up which will take us all the way to the start of Spring Training. Each Friday I will examine, in reverse order of last year’s regular season finish, each team’s situation as the off-season gets underway. I’ll break down the piece into three parts: What moves need to be made, Who is getting kept, and What needs to go right in order for that team to make the postseason in 2024.

All opinions are my own, and should you disagree with them remember that you have a constitutional right to free speech. You should also remember that your right only protects you from government infringement. I can infringe all I want. So keep your opinion to yourself, I don’t care.

what moves need to be made?

James Swindell is an interesting conundrum. Swindell is one of the most active managers who continually assembles star studded batting orders which are usually dynamic with power and speed. Swindell has locked down Juan Soto and Adolis Garcia for multiple seasons of exceptional keeper value, giving him a strong core to build around. So why is Big Desantis Energy staring down the barrel of a sixth straight season of postseason absence?

At first I hypothesized that Swindell’s habitual reliance on questionable pitching talent (Bieber, Valdez, Strasburg, McCullers) was causing his continual misfortune. However, I am no Fox News talking head proselytizer. I ran the numbers. The results were honestly a little surprising. Here is Swindell’s average finish in pitching categories per year matched against his team’s yearly finish in the regular season:

2023 - Team Finish 7th - Pitching Finish 6.66th

2022 - Team Finish 8th - Pitching Finish 5.50th

2021 - Team Finish 12th - Pitching Finish 7.83th

2020 - Team Finish 4th - Pitching Finish 6.16th

2019 - Team Finish 8th - Pitching Finish 6.00th

Don’t let it be said that I can’t admit when I’m wrong and anyone who says otherwise is a liar. In every season except for 2020, Swindell’s average pitching roto score was actually higher than his average spot in the standings. So with that theory thoroughly debunked, what else can I point at? Let’s look back at Swindell’s keepers from the last four-ish seasons. Setting aside the COVID year because that was a mess, here is what we have:

2023 - Shane Bieber, Framber Valdez, Juan Soto, Michael Harris II, Adolis Garcia, Sandy Alcantara

2022 - Max Scherzer, Corey Seager, Shane Bieber, Brandon Lowe, Trevor Rogers, Juan Soto

2021 - Anthony Rendon, JD Martinez, Gleyber Torres, Juan Soto, Mike Soroka, Jose Berrios

2019 - Giancarlo Stanton, Edwin Diaz, Trevor Bauer, Noah Syndergaard, Walker Buehler, Juan Soto

Here is where the picture begins to come into focus. Players names’ who are in red either did not return close to their keeper value (due to injury or performance) or in the case of players kept in the last 6 rounds of the draft, did not return top 300 player value. Swindell has not “hit” on more than half his keepers since before 2019. What’s worse is if you eliminate Juan Soto entirely from this list, Swindell has only kept SIX players in four years who have returned at least their kept value.

Because Swindell is an active and well read manager throughout the season, he can usually get by and field competitive teams that are expected to win despite the handicap of throwing half his keeper slots away, but what can we do to help? After all, that’s what these articles are about right? I am here to sit on my high horse in my glass house whilst eating copious amounts of humble pie while preaching to you lowly mortals about how to save your seasons.

This “What Moves Need to Be Made” section is actually going to be quite short, because I firmly believe if we fix James’ proclivity for selecting bum keepers, then we give him the leg up to save his season, so with that let’s move to the next step…

who is getting kept?

Thankfully, as is tradition, Swindell has already published his expected keepers for 2024. All we need to do is decide which three keepers are correct and which three are mistakes. After all, math doesn’t lie and neither do I. So, without further ado let’s make our way through James’ professed proven players for 2024 and decide who gets the shot and who has to trot.

COREY SEAGER (2) - AGREE

The first choice is a good one. Seager broke out into the player that we all thought he could be last season. With his bat-to-ball skills and ability to drive the ball with authority in the heart of a strong Rangers lineup, a 30+ HR, 100 RBI, .300 season should be expected. He’s kept in the second round but should perform like a top 10 player.

FRAMBER VALDEZ (7) - DISAGREE

Sorry James, but Valdez has all the earmarks of a bad news bear Swindell pitching disaster. Valdez’s increased reliance on his sinker and his decision to shelve his cutter and curve lead to a ballooning of all his naughty stats across the board. At round seven he is an acceptable gamble for most teams, but again we have to turn to the math and say that Swindell’s curse has doomed Valdez to fail. I would take the round 21 flyer on Carlos Rodon to rescue the Yankees from his contract next year if he can get his velocity back up to 95 or 96. If he manages that he could be a league winner at that value.

LUIS ARRAEZ (10) - DISAGREE

Batting average is great, but it is only one category. Arraez is a perfect example of a player that is better in real baseball than fantasy. With hardly any power or meaningful speed, Arraez contributes in batting average and is at best okay in runs and RBI while being a huge sink on steals and HR. This is a keeper decision which screams “PLAYING NOT TO LOSE” instead of “PLAYING TO WIN”. Scrap Arraez for Michael Harris II, who had a dreadful start to 2023 but screamed back to remind everyone he is a 20/20 .300 threat in a potent Braves lineup. If the Braves ever wise up to bat Harris higher in the order and he maintains consistency throughout the season he could go 25/25 and bat .280. I’ll take that over Arraez every day of the week.

JUAN SOTO (12) - AGREE

No brainer here. This year could be an MVP season in the little league park the Yankees play in.

ADOLIS GARCIA (15) - AGREE

I don’t usually post these here but it’s too perfect not to:

Make it stand out

Whatever it is, the way you tell your story online can make all the difference.

If any of you are wondering what the perfect “Ian Shaw” hitter is, here you go. Huge power, ability to barrel the ball, at least average speed, and BIG STRIKEOUTS. The only sprinting Garcia did last year was towards becoming a three true outcomes player and I am HERE FOR IT.

EVAN CARTER (FA) - DISAGREE

Carter put on an impressive show down the stretch and in the postseason for the Rangers. Carter barrels up the ball and hits it with authority, rarely looking outmatched in his first taste of the bigs. But… he’s the last candidate for Swindell’s keepers and we’ve only eliminated two, so he’s got to go. In all seriousness Carter screams sell high with his massive strikeout numbers. He’s a dead pull hitter who got ZERO hits against left handed pitching in his limited time in the bigs. I’d rather flip Carter for a low level pick and keep this spot for if Junior Caminero makes the Rays squad out of camp. He’s a more complete player with all-star upside, and while Carter has big pop and will have a chance to play for a great team, he’s also got big bottom out potential. Flee the curse, James, go with Caminero.

what needs to go right?

If we are operating under the assumption that Swindell’s decision tree when it comes to keepers is what’s handicapping him going into the draft and beyond then making sure his keeper slate is reliable is the biggest step. Aside from Seager, Swindell wouldn’t have another keeper until pick 12, allowing him to load up on valuable talent through the first ten rounds of the draft. Building out a pitching staff will be important since his current crop skews hitter-heavy. I expect Swindell to be in the market for Wheeler or Yamamoto if he falls towards the end of the draft order for the first round.

irl team analogue:

boston red sox

A long tenured team with a rich history of success that has recently faded into the rear view mirror. Pitching needs a lot of help and they can’t seem to reliably hit on their retained talent outside the big boppers.