BO KNOWS: PITCHING IS OVERRATED
Welcome to the fifth of a 12-part weekly write-up which will take us all the way to the start of Spring Training. Each Friday I will examine, in reverse order of last year’s regular season finish, each team’s situation as the off-season gets underway. I’ll break down the piece into three parts: What moves need to be made, Who is getting kept, and What needs to go right in order for that team to make the postseason in 2024.
All opinions are my own, and should you disagree with them you can chalk that disparity up to mere illusion brought on by post-Christmas sugar intake, eggnog coma, and general malaise from too much time with extended family. Cheer up and embrace the holiday spirit, which in this case means agreeing with me.
WHAT MOVES NEED TO BE MADE?
This is a good team. Johnson has historically produced competitive squads which benefit from a set of keepers with outsized values and a core of reliable hitters. This year is no different. I see only one arm in line as a potential keeper, the rest being stud bats. Johnson will benefit from having all of his draft picks available until round 16, and has a tantalizing mix of power, speed, young upside, and reliable veterans. This is my third most loved set of keepers behind Vinson Mulvey and Patrick Weaver.
So how does he improve it?
Whatever way you would like to slice it, Johnson’s pitching will be an issue which needs addressing come draft day. I fully expect him to be one of the teams most likely to draft Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the first or second round to anchor his staff. If Richard Martindell throws back Zack Wheeler then he will be another high value target. Johnson can either bundle a lower priority set of keepers like McLain and Perez together for a more established starter, or he can stand pat with the set of keepers he has and angle for more picks (The Weaver Approach*). In this case Jackson Holliday could be an attractive trade option to achieve this, especially if it looks like he’s not going to make the opening day roster out of camp, thus making it so he doesn’t take up a major league keeper spot.
However, and this may be a boring take, Johnson can absolutely stand pat with the group he has in front of him and count on a strong draft. The unparalleled flexibility at the top end of his draft spots gives him that luxury. Despite his lackluster finish last season, Johnson should feel pretty good about his status heading into the draft this year, with the understanding that he needs to draft quality pitching early on.
who is getting kept?
The most important point here is actually who is not getting kept, so I’ll start there, intervention style:
Mark. We care about you. That’s why we’re here. It’s time to quit Eloy Jimenez. Before you say it, I am aware how his partially buttoned jersey gets your heart rate up and how his roguish sideways tilt to his cap attracts you because you can’t resist a bad boy. But we’re your family. We don’t like what this is doing to you. Seeing you hold out hope every season for a “healthy year” is killing us, and you. Besides, last year he managed over 400 PA and he still stunk. It’s time to stop making excuses for Eloy. He may not even qualify for a position other than UTIL next year! It’s time to move on. Alvarez is your main man now. Do the healthy thing and let go.
Yordan Alvarez (16)
He’s Aaron Judge if he played for a bunch of cheaters. Seriously, if Judge wasn’t in the league Alvarez would be considered the best power hitter in the AL. At round 16 he could be the best value in the league (aside from Corbin Carroll because I can hear Mulvey thinking it).
Bo Bichette (16)
I actually don’t expect this skill set to age well. Bichette continually shows he doesn’t have strong OBP skills, and one of these years I fear his hit tool won’t be able to make up for the difference and the batting average will plummet. At round 16 he’s still a stud value but we’ve likely already seen the best case scenario.
Julio Rodriguez (21)
.270 32 HR 27 SB. He is who we thought he was, and there’s likely more in the tank.
Vinny Pasquantino (24)
Vinny P is an interesting case of unrealized potential. He was a fantasy darling in 2022 and leading into 2023 before having a disappointing first half and then a season-ending injury. When you look at the numbers it seems reasonable to think his shoulder ailment played a role in significantly diminished power numbers. In 2022 Vinny P had some of the best average exit velocity and hard hit rate numbers in the league, but in 2023 those numbers fell to middle of the pack. At his low low keeper cost I think he’s a huge value play and could see a strong bounce back season.
Matt McLain (FA)
McLain’s achilles heel is his elevated strikeout numbers, like a lot of players in the Reds lineup. However you can’t discount his power/speed combo and the run producing value of the Reds lineup. That being said, there is almost no way he replicates his .290 BA of last season. If he keeps his average above .260 I’d count that as a win.
Eury Perez (FA)
Perez is a great upside play here, but I’d only keep him if Jackson Holliday doesn’t make the opening day lineup. If he does he gets the nod here easily. Perez will struggle with volume but he could follow the boom route of an Alcantara with how dynamic his stuff is and how proven the Marlins organization is at developing young pitching.
what needs to go right?
Much like the United States military during the Vietnam War, it’s all about the draft. Johnson will need to secure one or two high value arms early in the draft to balance out his bat heavy keepers. If he can do that without compromising his ability to fill out the rest of his positions he should be in fantastic shape. If he misses out on an ace though he’s going to be forced to get lucky with an upside pitching play or off the wire, and that’s where things get muddy.
irl team analogue:
cincinnati reds
Just hit lots of dingers and steal lots of bases and the rest will sort itself out.
