SHIRLEY’S SOX: THE GOAT AND THE SHEEP

*Conflict of interest disclosure. I engaged with Brooke Weaver earlier this season regarding a trade of a player I talk about in this article. These trade talks are no longer ongoing and have not influenced my work on this piece.

Welcome to the fourth of a 12-part weekly write-up which will take us all the way to the start of Spring Training. Each Friday I will examine, in reverse order of last year’s regular season finish, each team’s situation as the off-season gets underway. I’ll break down the piece into three parts: What moves need to be made, Who is getting kept, and What needs to go right in order for that team to make the postseason in 2024.

All opinions are my own, and should you disagree with them you can rest assured that I went through several revisions to reach this article’s final draft. Therefore, it’s possible that your opinion was reflected in one of my earlier drafts. So, be soothed by the fact that I did consider your point, before promptly discarding it like spoiled milk.

what moves need to be made?

Let’s address the G.O.A.T. in the room.

Shohei Ohtani is the greatest baseball player this league has or ever will see. I say this league because we operate in a daily transaction format in which Shohei exists as one single player (none of that Yahoo clone Ohtani crap). Brooke Weaver can start Ohtani as a pitcher for every start while accruing hitting stats for him every day he’s not pitching. If you can’t wrap your head around that level of production, let me contextualize it for all you smooth brains out there.

Here are some player comparisons for you:

Shohei Ohtani: .304 BA, 1.066 OPS, 102 R, 44 HR, 95 RBI, 20 SB

Mookie Betts: .307 BA, .987 OPS, 126 R, 39 HR, 107 RBI, 14 SB

Shohei Ohtani: IP 132, 167 K’s, 3.04 K/BB, 3.14 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

Tyler Glasnow: IP 120, 162 K’s, 4.38 K/BB, 3.53 ERA, 1.08 WHIP

Pretty close huh? A player roughly equivalent to Mookie Betts and Tyler Glasnow who only occupies one roster spot, and has yet to occupy a first round keeper position and won’t until 2025; that’s the level of value we are talking about. In a redraft version of our own league, Ohtani would be drafted first overall every single year without question. So, what results has Ohtani brought Weaver during the last three MVP caliber seasons?

2021: 4th Place

2022: 7th Place

2023: 11th Place

Let’s charitably call those results mixed, and with Ohtani sitting out 2024 as a pitcher, the value ratio is getting worse for Weaver instead of better. So how does she build around the greatest fantasy baseball player ever in order to produce a deep title run?

There are two paths to take. I’ll address the safer one first:

trade everyone not named ohtani:

Weaver’s team is more top heavy than it has ever been, and it severely restricts her roster building options. With Devers, Lindor, and Ohtani, her first three rounds are completely locked down with keepers. While Devers and Lindor would be safe keeps in this format, they don’t equate to any added value. While that is not necessarily a crippling result on its own, the fact that Weaver’s back-end talent is shallow other than Gallen, it makes the margin for error on draft day unforgivably slim. By the fourth round most of the reliable top-end pitching talent will be gone, leaving Weaver to fill out her shallow staff with volatile options.

The only player who is immovable is Ohtani. If you package players like Devers or Lindor around Gallen you can aim for a return of high value keepers who may be less established but have upside and more importantly a low keeper cost. Players who fit this sort of mold would be George Kirby, Michael Harris II, Elly De La Cruz, and others.

Creating low cost, high upside options to complement the high-cost stardom of Ohtani while freeing up draft flexibility at the top rounds widens the possibilities for Weaver. This is the traditionally safe option… which means there’s an unconventional option…

trade ohtani:

You know what’s great about transcendental, once in a generation talents? Everyone wants them, and they’ll pay 700 million dollars to get them. What is the equivalent in this case? Likely three or more top 50 players or equivalent picks.

Floating the idea that you are listening to trade offers on Ohtani carries no risk, and the potential reward of someone spending stupid money. With such established dynastic owners, someone in the bottom half of the standings may be willing to empty the piggie bank for Ohtani in a “blow your doors off” type of deal to lock down the GOAT for the far future at the expense of the present. If bottom-half finisher Mark Johnson rang up Weaver and offered Julio, Bichette and a second round pick should she take it? Absolutely yes, because flags fly forever.

Tomorrow isn’t guaranteed. Look death in the eye and spit in it. Laugh and laugh all your way to a title. Next year is future you’s problem, and that asshole can figure it out. Eat the extra cupcake, drink that extra drink, take Friday off, and trade a dynastic talent to win now. Fuck the future.

who is getting kept?

Some of these picks will have disclaimers. That’s a disclaimer… regarding future disclaimers…

Rafael Devers (1) ***If she has a first round pick of 8 or later***

Devers is as steady as they come. 30 homers, 100 RBI, and a .270 batting average in the bank every season, more or less. There is definite value to consistency, but the ceiling is lower than other players in the top 20. That and the fact that players such as Freddie Freeman, Jose Ramirez, and Trea Turner, all of which I would take over Devers, will be potentially re-entering the draft this season, and I would seriously consider throwing Devers back. It’s all contingent on draft order.

Francisco Lindor (2)

Lindor bounced back in a big way last season, going 30/30 for the first time in his career. Assuming the new baserunning rules were the reason for the boosted speed, we can expect at least 20 bags this year too.

Shohei Ohtani (3)

He should bat second.

Joe Ryan (10) ***Should be the first player not kept, and the first dropped if a trade is made***

He’s boring, like most of the state of Minnesota, but his fastball is magic and he gets strikeouts. I believe he is a sub 4 ERA pitcher which is why he’s even on this list. Having said that, he’s only on here because of lack of other options.

Zac Gallen (14)

This was truly the breakout season for Gallen and he has solidified himself as a top 10 pitcher. This is the greatest value of Brooke’s keepers and is a definite keep.

I don’t have a sixth keeper to recommend. I dunno, pick a closer or something. Devin Williams has a cool first name.

what needs to go right?

Ohtani will always, even as just a hitter, give you a chance to win. Weaver’s season hinges wildly on if she is able to increase keeper value between now and the draft. If she goes into the season with the slate of keepers she has above, it makes it harder for her to miss on draft day and still compete with other teams already loaded with keeper value. If she is able to trade some of her players like Lindor though, who bog down the top of her draft, she opens up flexibility in the early part of the season, and increases her chance to explode early on.

Just avoiding bad luck situations like Alek Manoah will go a long way too.

irl team analogue:

los angeles angels

I hate to do it, but it’s too obvious not to.

Ohtani Years: 5

Playoff games: 1

Championship: 0