OFF-SEASON PROFILES FINALE
off-season profile: part 12
THIS EDITION OF OFF-SEASON PROFILES IS WRITTEN BY ESTEEMED GUEST AUTHOR, VINSON MULVEY
Let it never be said Ian Shaw wasn’t willing to go all in to try to win a championship. Late last July, Shaw put all his cards on the table and traded away the best player in fantasy baseball, Ronald Acuña Jr, and the best pitcher in fantasy baseball, Spencer Strider, to round out his roster in an attempt to compete for his fourth gold medal. Shaw made it to the championship but came up just short of hanging another banner in his rafters. Not only was Acuña the best player in fantasy baseball last season, he had arguably the best season in the history of fantasy baseball. Although he costs a first round draft pick, his value is so far beyond anyone else in the league that it doesn’t really matter. Strider’s ERA was inflated a bit past what his expected stats were, but his enormous advantage in strikeouts makes him the consensus top pitcher going into the 2024 season. With those two, Shaw could have had the best crop of keepers in the league. Without them, Shaw was forced to take some risks to round out his keepers.
This hasn’t been a part of Shaw’s past team spotlights, but I think it’s necessary to evaluate the Acuña and Strider trades to see what he gained last season.
The first trade: Shaw trades away Ronald Acuña Jr, Willy Adames, Willson Contreras, and Kevin Ginkel and receives Manny Machado, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Pablo Lopez, Adley Rutschman, and Masataka Yoshida. As Shaw called it, the Godfather offer. Five solid players for Acuña and some throw-ins.
From August forward, Acuña, Contreras, and Adames combined for 99 runs, 104 rbis, 33 home runs, and 24 steals on around a .290 average and a .950 OPS.
Machado, Chisholm Jr, Rutschman, and Yoshida combined for 104 runs, 112 rbis, 29 home runs, and 8 steals on approximately a .260 average and .750 OPS. So the three hitters Shaw traded away outperformed the four hitters returned to him. Not great.
The brightest spot of the return for Shaw was Pablo Lopez, who had a tremendous end to the year, racking up the innings and strikeouts on a 2.75 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. During these last two months of the year he cemented himself as a true ace for the Twins. Lopez shone almost as brightly as his head on a sunny day. Goodness, what a beautiful man.
The second trade: Shaw trades away Spencer Strider and receives Aaron Nola, Yu Darvish, and Jose Altuve. First of all, this trade certainly reduced the average thickness of the thighs and mustaches on Shaw’s team. What that did to them psychologically, who can say.
Darvish only threw 29 innings after the trade, and both him and Nola had an ERA over 4.5 down the stretch. Strider wasn’t a whole lot better, but neither of the pitchers Shaw received in the trade provided much value for him. Altuve was the real get here, racking up terrific counting stats alongside a .330 average and .925 OPS.
Both of these trades were probably a net positive in season, but neither were the home run Shaw was hoping for to offset the loss of two top tier keepers.
what moves need to be made?
Some savvy moves by Shaw have improved his roster significantly from where it was a few months ago. He acquired Tyler Glasnow, Oneil Cruz, and Trea Turner for a third round draft pick and a seventh round pick. However, Shaw is still in a precarious position going into draft season, as many of his keepers have significant question marks and his hitting roster has more holes than swiss cheese. Shaw is betting on the value provided by his pitching staff, with projected pitching keepers of Tyler Glasnow, Pablo Lopez, and Cole Ragans. Shaw is also planning on keeping two shortstops and a catcher, leaving him empty at some of the most shallow positions. With only five draft picks in the top 10, Shaw will be digging deep in the sleeper bin to fill out his outfield and corner infield.
While Shaw was able to give his roster more stability with the acquisition of Trea Turner, he is lacking reliable counting stats from his hitters. While his pitchers provide great value where they are kept, perhaps trading one of them either for a bat or draft picks could help him fill out his roster. The problem is that outfield is a very shallow position this year, and there aren’t a whole lot of players at the position who provide good keeper value. Going into the draft with 0 outfielders is a daunting challenge, and with how much other owners will likely be prioritizing them at the beginning of the draft as well, Shaw could blink and find himself shopping for his third outfielder in Austin Hays, Brandon Nimmo, and Tyler O’Neill territory. Sickening.
who is being kept?
TREA TURNER (1)
Shaw acquired Trea Turner for a 7th round pick, and is a worthy first round keeper after he exploded in August and September to the tune of a .315 batting average, around a 1.000 OPS, 16 home runs, and 9 steals. It’s pretty easy to craft a narrative around him feeling the pressure of a new contract in a tough city to play in, then him eventually figuring it out with the support of his fan base as he settled in. The presumption is he figured something out and will carry some of that over into the coming season. He has been a fantasy baseball star for long enough that it’s easy to discount the first two thirds of last season as a blip on the radar which shouldn’t affect his production going forward. Although Turner will be 31 by the end of this season, his sprint speed has remained in the 99th percentile, and there’s no reason to believe he will slow down. Barring another collapse like last season, he should be a 20-25 homer, 25-30 steal guy on a good batting average with solid counting stats. This is the kind of guy Shaw needed to acquire to give his roster some consistency.
ADLEY RUTSCHMAN (9)
Rutschman is the consensus top catcher going into the 2024 season, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t live up to expectations. However, how much of an advantage does having the top catcher really give you? The problem with keeping a catcher or prioritizing them in drafts is that even the top catchers don’t typically provide eye-popping stats and there are guys who will provide close to that value later in the draft. Is a guy projected to hit .270 with 18-20 home runs, no steals, and around 75 runs and rbis really worth spending a keeper slot and a ninth round pick on when you could draft Logan O’Hoppe, the 12th catcher off the board, who is projected for around a .255 average, 20-22 home runs, and about 60 runs and rbis? Last year, William Contreras was the best catcher in fantasy and was dropped two separate times. Since this league only has one catcher spot and teams typically only roster one, there are ample opportunities to find quality backstops late in the draft or off the waiver wire.
What Rutschman does provide is a high floor and above average playing time at the position. Rutschman is an excellent hitter and should provide good average, something most catchers don’t. He is 26 and should continue improving alongside the young Baltimore roster which should provide him ample counting stats. Without an entrenched designated hitter, Rutschman should fill that role when he is given off days at Catcher. There are plenty of reasons to like Rutschman, but it’s fair to question how much keeper value he’ll provide compared to other positions which aren’t nearly as deep.
PABLO LOPEZ (10)
Have I mentioned how much I love Pablo Lopez? He’s left the “injury prone” tag in the rearview mirror with two straight seasons of 180+ innings. The Twins will have to ride him with how weak their rotation is, so a Cy Young caliber season isn’t out of the question. Any team would be happy to have this guy as their anchor.
TYLER GLASNOW (23)
This is where things get interesting. Glasnow is good enough that if he hits 100 innings, he’s probably a top 30 pitcher. If he hits 140 innings, he’s probably a top 10 pitcher. Problem is, his 120 innings last year were the most of his career. Before that, he hadn’t topped 100 since 2018.
Even if he stays healthy the whole season, the Dodgers probably won’t let him get past 140 innings. They’ll likely be running a six man rotation and I expect they’ll skip starts for him or push back his outings to keep him healthy for the playoffs. Glasnow will be a frustrating player to own but if he somehow manages to stay on the mound all season for the first time in his career, he could be a league winner. Reports out of training camp are that Glasnow is feeling better than he has in years. I saw a similar headline about Byron Buxton.
ONEIL CRUZ (24)
The gambles continue. Cruz is the ultimate lottery ticket. Maybe he goes 30/30, maybe he is in AAA by July. His speed and power are otherworldly, but so are his splits against left handed pitchers. In 101 at bats against lefties in 2022, he struck out an unfathomable 59 times. Words haven’t been created to describe just how horrifying that is. Some experts have pointed to improvements in his plate discipline during the 2023 season before his injury, but 32 at bats is just not enough of a sample for me to be convinced. Nobody knows what the future holds for Cruz, but this is Shaw’s type of player. Big power, 0 plate discipline, no boring at bats.
COLE RAGANS (FA)
Ragans might be the most divisive player among fantasy analysts this offseason. Some have him ranked as high as the 13th best pitcher, others have him in the 30s. Ragans came completely out of nowhere in the second half of the season to put up a 2.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 89 strikeouts in 71 innings. Ragans has been dogged by command issues in the past, but if he’s truly put those behind him he could be a top 10 pitcher. Of course, a miraculous 4 mph increase in fastball velocity for a guy who’s had two Tommy John surgeries is a recipe for disaster. And who could forget the game where he threw three straight pitches into the backstop. As with Cruz, nobody really knows what 2024 will bring for Ragans. But he sure did look dominant down the stretch. He’s also shown himself to be capable of growing a high-quality mustache, a trait Shaw has rated as being quite important in the past.
WHAT NEEDS TO GO RIGHT?
The gambles need to pay off more than they don’t. If Glasnow can get back to 120+ innings, Turner doesn’t draw the ire of Phillies fans, Ragans proves the last two months weren’t a fluke, and Cruz can hit enough home runs and steal enough bases to offset a dreadful batting average, Shaw could find himself back in the driver’s seat of the league. But if most of these things don’t materialize, he could be in for a long season.
Simply put, Shaw needs to have the best draft of his life. Keeping players in rounds 1, 9, and 10 while trading away picks 3 and 7 means Shaw will only have 5 picks in the first 10. He needs five outfielders, a 3rd baseman, 2nd baseman, 1st baseman, and corner infielder. The math doesn’t math for him to have a solid roster of hitters before the dart throwing portion of the draft. Shaw can’t afford to miss on any of his early picks and will need to be successful on some sleeper predictions in order to be competitive in the hitting categories. This also means he won’t be able to prioritize pitchers early in the draft. So if Glasnow and Ragans get hurt again, he could find himself in trouble there.
Shaw has consistently done well at finding talent in-season and making smart trades to improve his roster, so a poor or average draft might not completely sink him. But it will sure make things an awful lot more difficult. Shaw spoke at length in his most recent article about wanting owners to step up their game this season. Presumably he intends to lead by example. Expect him to be more prepared for this season than he ever has before. This will likely be the most competitive season in the long history of this fantasy baseball league. There are twelve managers who pay attention, know their stuff, and are active on the waiver wire and trade market. Buckle up.
IRL TEAM ANALOGUE:
Shaw was recently quoted as saying “If it’s not the Mets I’ll be disappointed”. I have something else in mind.
-Perpetual hype machine regardless of actual team performance
-Puts stock in the long ball over anything else
-Used to be a powerhouse but hasn’t won anything in ages
That’s right folks, it’s…
THE NEW YORK YANKEES
Good luck getting something out of Carlos Rodon and Giancarlo Stanton this year.
