DRAFT ORDER IS SET: WHAT DOES IT MEAN?
The 2024 Draft Order was decided by marble race
Now it’s truly off to the races.
After many months of planning and speculation, the 2024 draft order is set. In a riveting marble race the outcome was as follows:
james swindell
richard martindell jr
Michael staron
joey mcdermott
vinson mulvey
daniel topczewski
jonathan sitko
mark johnson
brooke weaver
andrew heller
patrick weaver
ian shaw
There will be a lot to unpack regarding the draft order in the coming days and weeks, but let’s first talk about what to expect and some winners and losers.
what happens now?
Expect the jockeying for Vinson Mulvey’s remaining tradeable first round assets to begin in earnest. Jose Ramirez and Freddie Freeman will be marketed heavily, and given the state of the draft order, Sitko, Heller, and possibly Johnson could be trade partners. The problem with how the order fell for Mulvey is that more common trade partners such as Martindell and Swindell ended up with early picks, taking them out of the running.
Depending on how those trades do or do not work themselves out will immpact whether Swindell or Martindell decide to shop their picks for trade. Swindell may also be in a difficult position regarding team needs now given that he desperately needs ace pitching but will now be forced to potentially pass on MVP level talent with the number 1 overall pick to get it, since Yamamoto and Wheeler most definitely will not last to the end of the second round.
WINNERS:
Swindell, Martindell, and Shaw have to be happy with how this turned out, not just because they ended up with the coveted “turn” picks, but because it fits their needs beautifully. Swindell now has the freedom to pick a top end slugger, a much needed ace, or to trade his pick entirely for depth. Since he doesn’t have a first round keeper this is a “no brainer” win-win. Martindell is also flush with early round picks so having an early pick is outstanding for his “high depth” roster.
Shaw couldn’t have asked for a better outcome, 1. Because it validates the risk he took trading for Trea Turner early and 2. It positions him well to extract top value out of his 2nd and 4th round picks.
Losers:
Patrick Weaver would be the easy pick for this since his first two rounds are spoken for with keepers, but I actually think this could have been worse if he ended up in the middle. There is a decent market to trade a back end pick and I think that is what he’ll be looking to do in the coming weeks.
**THIS ARTICLE WAS WRITTEN BEFORE RICHARD MARTINDELL JR AND PATRICK WEAVER TRADED SECOND AND THIRD ROUND PICKS**
Mulvey is on this list not necessarily because of where the pick is (which isn’t ideal given his first round keep), but also because his road to trade Freeman and Ramirez just got harder. Swindell and Martindell were both teams that have a high propensity to make moves and have an established trade history with Mulvey. Both of these teams have to be considered “out of the running” given their 1 and 2 spots in the draft. There is still a good chance Mulvey gets the deal done, but with teams like Brooke Weaver’s and Mark Johnson’s filling back end slots the road is harder. Heller also falls in that range and is a “trade friendly” owner, but he also has keepers in two of the first three rounds, so him trading away a pick of any value for a first round keeper seems unlikely.
days until the draft: 28
Tick tock.
