MULVEY’S MINOR LEAGUE MUSINGS

Mar 10

2024 will be a year of exciting change for the League of Mediocre Gentlefolks. One of the most notable changes will be the introduction of a three person prospect roster and a three round prospect draft prior to the normal draft. This will allow managers to be more involved in scouting, researching, and evaluating prospects who could make an impact on their team in the future without sacrificing a roster spot on their big league team. The prospect game can be a bit overwhelming. I know it certainly is for me even though I’ve been active in the scene for a few years now. The goal of this article is to give people who may be wondering where to start with the prospect roster some tools to help them with their research, avoid pitfalls, and find guys who will be impactful for their team. Writing this article also forces me to do some research on my own, so hopefully I’ll benefit from this too. If you have logistical questions about the minor league draft or roster, this isn’t the place to have them answered. Please refer to Ian’s FAQs for help with that. In this article, I’ll briefly cover some of the top prospects I anticipate will be available to draft, what I believe will be some of the main strategies used by managers, and some general tips which have been helpful for me. Let’s dive in.

people who may be off the table:

Prospect eligible players are those who are on a minor league roster at the time of the minor league draft. This does not include people like Walker Buehler who ended last season on a rehab assignment in the minors.

The following is the list of prospects who already have a home and may be selected as keepers (although Pat might have to throw a few back). I likely won’t spend as much time on these guys as they won’t be available to draft. Prospect rankings will be from the official MLB list for 2024 which was recently published. Guys in bold and italics ended the season on an MLB roster but still haven’t accumulated enough service time to have graduated from being a prospect.

#1 Jackson Holliday

#2 Jackson Chourio

#3 Paul Skenes

#4 Junior Caminero

#5 Evan Carter

#6 Wyatt Langford

#7 Dylan Crews

#11 Jordan Lawlar

#14 James Wood

#15 Marcelo Mayer

#16 Pete Crow-Armstrong

#18 Brooks Lee

#19 Colton Cowser

#23 Kyle Harrison

#32 Heston Kjerstad

#46 Ty Black

#76 Ceddane Rafaela

#78 Druw Jones

There are only ten rostered players who may be kept this year, leaving much of the top 50 wide open to be drafted.

general strategy:

I believe there are two different areas of interest needing to be evaluated, with each area having two prevailing strategies. These areas are proximity vs potential and pitchers vs position players.

PROXIMITY VS POTENTIAL

There are two major ways managers can use their prospect roster. The first is the “shoot for the moon” strategy. Managers using this strategy will be looking for the best prospects out there with the highest upside, and will use their minor league roster as an incubator to keep these guys there for a while in the hopes they could turn into a league winner. Although these types of players likely won’t debut in the majors for a year or two, once they get there they could be so valuable they are well worth the wait.

Let’s go back a few years to the top 100 prospects list from the 2020 season. Here are some of the names and numbers who would not debut until the 2022 season:

#4 Adley Rutschman

#9 Royce Lewis

#10 Bobby Witt Jr

#18 Julio Rodriguez

#25 CJ Abrams

Had you drafted any of these guys in 2021, they would not have touched the field that season. However, going into 2024 you would have two consensus top 5 players, two more top 40 players, and the highest ranked catcher in fantasy baseball.

Let’s look at some of the top position player prospects from 2021 who debuted in 2020 or were on a roster at the start of 2021:

#2 Gavin Lux

#6 Jo Adell

#13 Christian Pache

#14 Joey Bart

#16 Andrew Vaughn

#17 Dylan Carlson

#21 Carter Kieboom

It’s clear based on this slice of the prospects list you would have been better served going for upside over proximity, as the guys who were already in the bigs or were very close haven’t provided much of anything, whereas the guys who were a few years out have been league winners.

However, you look at 2022 and you have a different story. Let’s ignore the top guys who I mentioned as having been prospects since the 2020 season and compare proximity vs upside.

Top 25 prospects from 2022 who did not debut until the 2023 season or have yet to make their debut:

#8 Anthony Volpe

#10 Francisco Alvarez

#11 Noelvi Marte

#13 Marco Luciano

#14 Marcelo Mayer

#15 Brennen Davis

#20 Nick Gonzales

#23 Jordan Lawlar

#24 Henry Davis

#25 Khalil Watson

This is a pretty poor list compared to the last one. Volpe and Alvarez were rosterable last year but both had a batting average under .210, seriously reducing their value last year and going forward. Marte showed promise when he came up towards the end of the season, but is now suspended and faces a playing time crunch even when he returns. Lawlar, Henry Davis, and Luciano were unimpressive when they played last year and aren’t regarded as valuable players going into 2024. The rest haven’t debuted yet and their prospect stock has dropped since 2022. If you invested heavily into these guys, not only did they sit on your minor league roster all of 2022 and for some, 2023, but they did not provide any sort of a return on your investment.

The guys who were in close proximity to the bigs at the start of 2022 weren’t impressive in 2022 either, including guys like Spencer Torkelson, Riley Greene, Gabriel Moreno, Triston Casas, and Alek Thomas. None of these guys would have been selected as keepers in 2023 given their big league performances in 2022. However, they were at least off your minor league roster and you could find replacements. The cost of holding them for less than a season and getting no return is easier to stomach than the cost of holding someone for two or more years who doesn’t give you a return.

Using your minor league roster to hold prospects with tremendous upside who won’t debut this year can produce substantial returns. However, you are trading away the potential impact a midseason call-up could make and betting on the development of a young, unproven player.

Using your roster as a place to hold lower ranked prospects whose call-up is more imminent limits your upside, but can give you a better chance of gaining a valuable tool in season and allows you to have a more immediate chance to evaluate their talent and move on if needed.

Using a combination of these strategies or just betting on prospects you really like regardless of their proximity to the bigs may be the best bet.

PITCHER VS POSITION PLAYER

This discussion plays off the last one well. The old adage “there is no such thing as a pitching prospect” plays in our heads any time this topic comes up. But is there a way to profit off pitching prospects? Let’s take a look.

Here are the top pitching prospects from 2021:

#6 MacKenzie Gore

#10 Nate Pearson

#11 Casey Mize

#15 Sixto Sanchez

#18 Ian Anderson

#19 Luis Patino

This is a brutal list. Some of these pitchers showed flashes at times, but overall have provided nothing for you and certainly would not be on anyone’s roster at this point.

The 2023 list is a little better:

#6 Andrew Painter

#7 Grayson Rodriguez

#13 Eury Perez

#16 Daniel Espino

#18 Kyle Harrison

#20 Taj Bradley

#24 Bobby Miller

Three of these guys may be kept and a few others could still be useful next year. However, the hit rate or upside is just not the same as that of position players.

So where can we make money with pitching prospects? Based on history, hitting prospects will be prioritized more than pitching prospects. So there will be more pitching prospects available. Here’s some of the pitching prospects besides those already listed who made an impact last season and are regarded as having some value at least going into next season:

#42 Gavin Williams

#43 Hunter Brown

#59 Brandon Pfaadt

#65 Tanner Bibee

#70 Ryan Pepiot

#98 Bryce Miller

UR Andrew Abbott

UR Bryan Woo

UR Reese Olson

UR Emmett Sheehan

UR Mason Miller

UR Logan Allen

Keeping an eye on who’s performing well in the minors and what organizations have openings in their rotation could have allowed you to put many of these guys on your minor league roster a few weeks before their callup. You would have reaped the benefits of their performance in the majors (in some cases) and could move on to the next guy doing well in the minors you think is interesting. Using your minor league roster as a revolving door to keep taking cracks at pitching prospects on the verge of being called up could be a valuable use of resources and although many of them might miss, you could find the few diamonds in the rough who could provide value in season.

Hitting prospects will always be more valuable than pitchers as they are more predictable, less injury prone, and have higher ceilings as a fantasy player in almost all cases. However, being able to creatively use your roster spots to audition pitchers who could provide immediate value might prove to be a productive strategy.

RANDOM MUSINGS

Take these or leave them, but there have been a few different things I like to keep in mind when I’m looking at prospects. Some of these won’t be revelations to anyone.

POWER, SPEED, AND STRIKEOUTS ARE KING

When looking at prospects, we are most concerned about upside. What kind of an impact can this player make in fantasy?

We aren’t looking for floor - the guy who projects as a safe bet for a .275 average with 10 home runs and 5 steals. We are looking for the O’Neil Cruz and Elly De La Cruz’s of the world. The guys who have major questions about their ability to make contact, but who have legit 30-30 potential. These are the kind of guys who win leagues and who stay on your roster until they cost a first round pick. Experts like to use maximum exit velocity as a tool to measure power potential. For reference, 114 mph is the 90th percentile for maximum exit velocity among major league batters. 110 is the 58th percentile. 107 is the 28th percentile. This gives a decent idea where prospects might fall among their peers.

With pitchers, it will be difficult for them to make a real impact on your roster at the major league level unless they’re providing a lot of strikeouts. Rookies and prospects typically have innings caps, so the impact of a pitcher who provides decent ratios but no strikeouts will be far less at 120 innings than a veteran who does the same but gives you 180 innings.

BEWARE OF EXTREMELY GOOD OR EXTREMELY BAD DEFENSE

One of the most important factors for prospects is their ability to stay on the field. For some teams, a good bat will be enough to get everyday playing time. However, if the bat isn’t above average, it can be difficult for teams to keep putting someone in the lineup who isn’t up to par on defense. It can also be a reason for teams to platoon a player if their splits vs RHP or LHP are particularly bad and they aren’t providing much defensively.

While it’s not always a massive concern, there should be some alarm bells going off about a player’s defense if they make their way up through the minor leagues as anything other than a shortstop or center fielder. These top prospects are often the best players on their team by a wide margin, and the best defensive players are at those two spots. It’s understandable to get a player at AAA to be getting reps elsewhere if SS or CF are blocked at the major league level so they can fit into the roster elsewhere but if someone in A or AA is playing 2B every day, it probably means they aren’t a very good defender. Two guys who fit this bill are Samuel Basallo of the Orioles and Colt Keith of the Tigers. Basallo has massive offensive potential, but is a subpar defensive catcher. Because of how slow he is, there really aren’t any other positions they could put him at besides first base. Other catching prospects like Daulton Varsho, Henry Davis, and MJ Melendez have found a home in the outfield when the catching position was blocked at the major league level, leading to them still projecting for a full time role. Unless Basallo can improve defensively he’ll likely be fighting for at bats at first base and DH which are far more difficult to carve out time in than the outfield. Colt Keith has been playing second base almost exclusively in the last year, likely due to his lack of speed and arm strength on defense. It might not matter with the Tigers, but again, if he struggles initially on offense, it might be difficult to keep him in the lineup over someone who is a better defender.

On the other side of the coin, take a close look at a player if their defense is the main reason for their high prospect rating. While the defense may keep them on the field, gold gloves don’t count in fantasy. Let’s take a player like Pete Crow-Armstrong. He is being advertised as a generational defensive player and has already shown this at the big league level. However, he has a mediocre hit tool and below average power. While he will likely provide significant real-life value to the Cubs due to his excellent defense, he could very well give you a .240 average with 5 home runs and 20 steals. There is the potential for more, but that profile does not equal a top 20 prospect if you take away the elite defense and you might not want to consider him in that range for fantasy purposes.

THERE IS NO SUBSTITUTE FOR WATCHING GAMES OR HIGHLIGHTS

If you have the ability to watch highlights of a player or part of their games, it can give you valuable information you may not get elsewhere. This can be especially useful for a player’s major league debut. Let’s look at two pitchers from last year who had similarly horrific debuts, Gavin Stone and Bryan Woo. Woo gave up some hard contact, but got very unlucky with some of the hits against him, along with some questionable defense behind him. He showcased some swing and miss potential against an excellent offensive team in the Rangers. His fastball looked to be a pitch with potential. xERA and FIP backed up that he got unlucky and should have been much better. Gavin Stone also had a bad outing, but in a different way. In the minor leagues, his changeup was touted as his best swing and miss pitch, with a mediocre fastball and curveball. His changeup looked awful in that outing. It was flat, predictable, and wasn’t fooling anyone. He looked completely overmatched and you could see on his face that he wanted to crawl under the mound and never come out. He went on to continue being terrible before getting sent back down. I know stat folks don’t like this, but some players just look terrified of being there and aren’t ready for the moment. Other guys look like they belong on the field and have a level of confidence about them. Some guys strike out after a 9 pitch at bat. Some guys swing at three off speed pitches a foot out of the strike zone and don’t ever come close to making contact. Seeing the comfort level at the plate or on the mound can sometimes tell you as much about a player’s potential as the stats can.

Yamamoto gave up 5 runs on 6 hits in 2 innings a few days ago. If you look more closely at the film, five of the six hits stayed in the infield and several wouldn’t have been hits if Gavin Lux didn’t currently have the worst case of the yips since Zack Greinke. Seriously, what is going on there? Anyway, watching highlights is very helpful in confirming stats reflect performance. This is especially important with pitchers. Don’t put too much stock in one good or bad game.

DON’T GET TOO ATTACHED

The sunk cost fallacy is real in fantasy baseball. If your top 10 prospect from last year is hitting .200 in AA and is now the 50th ranked prospect, move on. Life’s too short to spend 5 years waiting for Sixto Sanchez to finally see the mound at LoanDepot Park.

A NOTE ON HOMERISM

Be a homer, or don’t be a homer. I don’t really care. I might sit on Walter Jenkins for a few years because I’m going to have a great time cheering for him for years to come when he makes it to the bigs. It’s one of the reasons I keep drafting Byron Buxton and it's why Richard sold Bobby Miller for Junior Caminero. Is it the best strategy? Maybe not. But I’m never going to tell you not to value the players and teams you like. End of the day, fantasy baseball is supposed to be fun. You want to cheer for the guys you like. Especially with prospects you’ve held for a long time, you feel a certain connection to them. Would you rather roster the guy you’ll watch play for your team every day or the guy on your division rival’s team? Depends on you as a person and owner. And that’s something everyone figures out for themselves. Maybe holding Ty Black and Jacob Misiorowski even if Black can’t get the ball out of the infield and Misiorowski is walking more people than Blake Snell isn’t the best strategy, but I won’t blame Dan for having hope for the Brewers’ youngsters.

Some owners have discussed how they feel they are better able to evaluate talent in their own organizations due to their proximity. If you feel that way, more power to you. Prospects are difficult to evaluate and most of the time, an organization’s beat writers are going to have the best information. If you spend more time consuming information from them than fans of other franchises, you might have an advantage in their talent evaluation. Or you might not. Depends how good the beat writer is.

PROSPECT PROFILES:

Let’s dig into a few of the top prospects who will be available to draft this season.

Let’s start with some position players. I’m not going to cover everyone, just some guys I find to be particularly interesting or that could make a more immediate impact.

#9 Colson Montgomery, 21, SS, CWS:

Montgomery’s stats in the minor leagues haven’t exactly matched up with a top 10 prospect ranking so far. While his excellent hit tool and plate discipline were on full display last year to the tune of a .287 AVG and .455 OBP, he only hit 8 home runs and only stole 2 bases. Scouts expect him to grow into his power as he continues through the minor leagues, but it seems clear he won’t ever provide much in the speed department. He has an outside chance to be called up late in the year as the White Sox will likely be terrible and he won’t have much competition for roster spots. At the very top end he could be Corey Seager or Xander Bogaerts. Towards the bottom end he could have a more similar fantasy profile to Harold Ramirez or Alec Bohm. Time will tell.

#10 Walter Jenkins, 19, OF, MIN:

Jenkins is probably the guy on this list who has the best chance at being a first round fantasy talent in the future. He has enormous raw power, good but not great speed, and an ever improving hit tool. He likely won’t make it to the bigs this year, but if you’re willing to wait he could turn out to be one of those guys you kicked yourself for passing up on. One comparison I liked was Josh Hamilton. He’s 6’3, strong, and has the kind of power potential that could make him a perennial home run derby participant. Of course, who knows what can happen with guys who are a year or two away. It’s always a risk.

If you don’t take him in the first round, I probably will. Am I revealing my true intentions of who I like in this article? Am I deceiving you all and not writing about the players I really want while hyping up others to throw you off the scent? Do I have a real plan? Do I even know the answer to these questions?

#12 Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SD:

Merrill is listed as a shortstop but the Padres have tried him in the outfield recently given the logjam they have at middle infield. With a great hit tool, above average power, and decent speed, Merrill has shown more than enough for the Padres to give him a chance at some point this season. If everything falls right he could end up profiling similarly to Kyle Tucker as a guy who is just really good at everything. Some more realistic comps might be Bryan Reynolds or Jeremy Pena, depending on what position he lands in. There’s a real chance he gets a shot straight away or early in the season. He got a vote of confidence from Tatis, for whatever it’s worth.

#13 Max Clark, 19, OF, DET:

Another guy you might need to wait a year or two on. There’s not much power here but he has a solid hit tool and otherworldly speed which could certainly make him a fantasy asset even if he can’t clear 15 home runs a year. And of course playing at Comerica in a bad lineup won’t do him any favors. We can dream of an Esteury Ruiz with a bit more power and a higher batting average.

#28 Adael Amador, 20, SS/2B, COL

Strong upside here. He has excellent plate skills and has shown enough potential in power and speed that he could be a real asset in a year or two when he’s playing at Coors Field. He walked more than he struck out last year and has shown consistent enough improvement to believe he could continue taking large steps forward. If he doesn’t make it to the bigs this year, it wouldn’t be surprising at all for him to start next season in the top 10 prospects. Colorado is also horrible and Brendan Rodgers is perennially injured so it wouldn’t be a shock to see him get a look mid-late season.

#30 Coby Mayo, 22, 1B/3B, BAL:

The biggest problem here is how crowded Baltimore is. With a couple of injuries or struggles, Mayo could find himself a midseason call up. Mayo’s calling card is his power, as he put up gaudy home run numbers and exit velocities across AA and AAA last season. There’s not much speed here and there is some batting average risk, but if he gets called up he should be able to provide good power at either corner infield position. Matt Chapman might be a comp here. He’s had a really strong showing in spring so far, hitting .346 with an 1.106 OPS, one home run, 5 doubles, and good plate discipline. If he keeps mashing Baltimore might not have much choice.

#31 CHASE DELAUTER, 22, OF, CLE:

Here’s another guy with great upside. He’s dealt with some foot injuries in the past, not something you love to see early in a career, but he projects for top end raw power and decent speed. There is some projection here, as his counting stats haven’t caught up with his prospect grades yet, but if he starts showing that power early this year expect him to move up the rankings quite a bit. He hit a nuke this spring and the power looks very real so far. His swing looks a little funky to me but I don’t really have anything concrete to back that up so no need to care too much about my thoughts.

#55 Curtis Mead, 23, 2B/3B, TBR:

Remember when I talked about being wary of infield prospects being listed at 2B and 3B? Mead has great plate skills and good power, but is slow and is a poor overall defender. Mead should get a shot at some point this season but if his bat doesn’t shine right away, he might be headed for a platoon role or back to the minors as he doesn’t provide any value on defense. His skill at the plate is real though, and if he can hit himself into a full-time role Mead could be a great value in the minor league draft. The Rays don’t really give time to players who are bad defensively so there will certainly be extra pressure there.

#59 Kyle Manzardo, 23, 1B, CLE:

An injury last year lowered his prospect ranking, but he had a massive 2022 and is hitting .462 with a 1.178 OPS so far this spring. He projects for a plus batting average with good power, similar to his teammate Josh Naylor. Problem is that Josh Naylor does exist on the Guardians and that Manzardo is bad enough defensively that he won’t be able to play anywhere but 1B or DH. The Rays did trade him away late last season too, so if history is any indication that means there is something wrong with him that nobody can see but them. He has a good chance to contribute this season, so if you think you know better than the Rays then be my guest and go for it.

DET #8 JUSTYN-HENRY MALLOY, 24, OF/3B:

A bit older of a prospect with a bit less upside than some of the other names, but has shown plenty of potential and could get a look this year on a team desperately needing some offense. He led the entire minor leagues in walks last season and has plenty of raw power which could translate at the big league level. He seems like the kind of guy who improves with time at each level he’s at, so it may take a minute for his stats to come around when he gets called up. He’s a smart hitter who learns quickly, so expect him to make adjustments that bring his stats up to a useful level.

And now for some pitchers:

# 25 Jackson Jobe, 21, DET:

Jobe is the highest ranked pitching prospect not named Paul Skenes or Kyle Harrison. His fastball projects well but his best pitch seems to be a devastating slider. He missed a lot of time in the past few years, but looked incredible when he returned late last season. He had a WHIP under 1, struck out 84 in 64 innings, and somehow only issued 6 walks. That’s pretty insane command for a 21 year old. If he can come anywhere close to those numbers when he reaches the bigs, he’s going to be an especially strong asset given our extra pitching category of K/BB. If I could end up with both him and George Kirby… we’ll just have to hope his back injuries don’t flare up again. He’s scheduled to make his spring debut on Tuesday. One could say I’ll be watching his career with great interest.

#26 Cade Horton, 22, CHI:

He’s been working on a cutter and curveball, but mostly projects as a fastball/slider kind of guy. Another pitcher who’s missed a lot of time with injuries, so it’s doubtful he will be anywhere close to a full workload this year even if he is called up at some point. The Cubs haven’t let him pitch in spring training against big league competition which is a bit frustrating, but if he continues dominating we could see him by midseason. Again, he only threw around 50 innings in 2022 and 88 last season, so I don’t see him getting over 120 innings until 2025.

#27 Andrew Painter, 20, PHI:

It’s easy to forget, but the hype last spring around Painter was off the charts before the needed Tommy John surgery and people were speculating about him beginning the year in the Phillies rotation as a 19 year old. At 6’7, his arm extension causes fastballs to get on top of hitters more quickly and if he can recapture his upper 90’s velocity prior to his surgery, he has true ace potential. His 2022 minor league numbers were simply breathtaking: a 1.56 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and 155 strikeouts to 25 walks in 103 innings. Even if he gets to 120 innings in 2025 there’s a chance he could get you 150 strikeouts. He’s not likely to see the field this season but the upside is unparalleled if you’re willing to wait on him a bit. Somebody please draft this guy before he gets to Ian.

#29 Ricky Tiedemann, 21, TOR:

Tiedemann has gotten a lot of hype but has a lot of injury risk which makes it hard to trust him going forward. He only pitched 44 innings last season but struck out 82 batters in that limited time. He threw over 70 innings in 2022 but it’s hard to see him getting much run this season even if he does get called up. He had a solid debut in spring training but the Jays will likely be careful with him this year due to his extensive injury history. If he can stay on the field he will certainly contribute in strikeouts.

#33 Jacob Misiorowski, 21, MIL:

Similar stuff applies to Misiorowski as Painter, but trade in the injury risk for a lack of command and there you go. He got up over 102 mph with the fastball last season, and he’s 6’7 as well. Problem is, he walks way too many guys. Stuff can only get you so far as a starting pitcher, which leads a lot of experts to believe he may end up in the bullpen if he can’t improve his command. Misiorowski is the ultimate mystery box prospect. He has more electricity in his arm than Darth Sidious but he probably has higher bust potential than anyone on this list due to his inability to throw strikes consistently. Regardless, he’s going to be fun to watch.

#36 Robby Snelling, 20, SDP:

There isn’t the same upside here as with the last two, but Snelling has a pretty high floor due to his command and arsenal. His fastball maxes out around 95-96 but he’s been able to tinker with his pitches as he progresses and posted a sub 2 ERA as a 19 year old in his first professional season. He got up over 100 innings, so if he can stay healthy this year he could be looking at a decent workload in 2025. The Padres will probably need some help with their rotation this year so he might even get a shot before the end of the season.

#62 Jared Jones, 22, PIT:

While Paul Skenes is getting all the hype in Pittsburgh, Jones might be the one getting the call first unless Skenes can convince Livvy Dunne to sit behind the plate for every game. He’s increased his stock quite a bit in spring, with his average fastball velocity at 98.3 and getting up over 100 regularly. He’s yet to give up a run in 4 appearances so far and there’s rumors he could be in play for a rotation spot to open the season. His stats didn’t stand out from last year and the walk rate was far too high, but if he can get that under control there’s a lot of upside here. When asked about the rumors he could start the season in the bigs he was quoted “my job is to go out there and shove every start and if that’s where it lands me then that’s where it lands me.” Love it.

#90 Hurston Waldrep, 22, ATL:

This is a guy that the experts really love. He’s only had one year of playing professional baseball, but he moved all the way from low A to AAA last year and has the stuff to make a big time impact if the Braves call him up this year. Like a lot of the other guys I mentioned, there’s great strikeout potential here but a lack of command. Noticing a trend in the kind of people I’m choosing for this list? He could easily end up in the bullpen or in middle relief, but that’s where Spencer Strider started when he got called up and look at him now. There’s a lot of risk here and he could end up being a wasted pick, but could yield big time dividends if he hits.

BAL #9 CHAYCE MCdERMOTT, 25:

Lost some ground in the prospect rankings with a bad 2022 but rebounded well last year with a 3.10 ERA and 155 strikeouts in 119 innings. With injuries to Kyle Bradish and John Means, there may be an opening here. 119 innings last year means they could let him throw quite a bit this season, and with an impressive spring so far he might get a look sooner rather than later. Earlier today he struck out six across three innings and looked great. Recency bias is lovely. Also, what is it with everyone in the Orioles organization having the most basic suburban upper-middle class white people names? They could start their own fraternity.

BAL #10 CADE POVICH, 23:

Not the most impressive 2023 but has the stuff to take a step forward this year and compete with McDermott for innings this season. His frame and delivery remind me a lot of Max Fried. Problem is he doesn’t control his off-speed pitches very well, so hitters can just sit on the fastball. Like McDermott, he’s looked great this spring especially yesterday against a Braves lineup starting most of their guys. Keep an eye on the Baltimore rotation and give these guys a chance if either one claims a spot.

CWS #16 PRELANDER BERROAH, 23:

Another dart throw type guy the experts seem to love. Projects as a reliever right now but there’s been talk of him getting a shot in the rotation if things fall right. Electric stuff but hasn’t been able to make the most of it so far. Someone to keep an eye on if he can pull it together.

If you made it to the end, congratulations. This has been the extent of my minor league draft prep, and I wrote it out so maybe it will help things be less intimidating for anyone who hasn’t explored the prospect world much yet. I can’t wait to see what strategies everyone comes up with as the league goes boldly where it has never gone before.

Ian Shaw