GRADE THE TRADE: MARCH MADNESS
SHAMBLES.
Two trades were made this weekend. One of them is fairly straightforward and easy to parse. Let’s start with that one.
the trade:
bo knows trades 10th round pick and 3rd round draft position
elly enchanted trades zack wheeler and 3rd round draft position
I’m not entirely surprised that Richard Martindell Jr managed to unload Wheeler before the draft, but I will still tip my cap to him. This is what the last 7 days does to people. Injury news starts rolling in, people begin to check back in from a long offseason and notice the belly weight they gained during the winter, and panic starts to set in.
There was very little chance Martindell was going to keep Wheeler with a 2nd overall draft position, so he didn’t lose anything meaningful in that regard. As for Johnson, I myself remarked that his staff lacked elite pitching, and with the ominous Eury Perez elbow soreness, things went from shallow to bone dry. Wheeler would not have lasted to Johnson’s draft position in the first round so this deal made all the sense in the world.
There’s really not much else to say. You can argue that Martindell could have tried to squeeze more juice from that orange but considering he had next to no leverage, any deal is a good deal.
the grades:
ELLY ENCHANTED: A-
MARK JOHNSON: A
THE TRADE:
BO KNOWS TRADES BO BICHETTE
I LIKE IAN ON TOPPER TRADES LUIS CASTILLO AND 12TH ROUND PICK
I don’t know what’s going on here.
Let me take you, dear reader, to a heady time 5 weeks ago. Topczewski had a keeper slate which looked something like this:
GERRIT COLE (1)
LUIS ROBERT JR (2)
LUIS CASTILLO (3)
CHRISTIAN YELICH (5)
OZZIE ALBIES (6)
FREDDY PERALTA (9)
Now, after a spate of injuries and several trades later, this is what the slate looks like:
FREDDIE FREEMAN (1)
LUIS ROBERT JR (2)
OZZIE ALBIES (6)
FREDDY PERALTA (9)
BO BICHETTE (16)
TEOSCAR HERNANDEZ (20)
**PICKS TRADED: 7TH, 8TH, 12TH
Before this rash of trades, Topper would only have four picks in the first ten rounds of the draft, and had two hitters considered to be top 50. Now, inexplicably, Topczewski will have four picks in the first ten rounds, but instead of having to wait until the 4th to draft he can start in the 3rd. The mean value of those picks is 5.5 rather than the 7.25 he was looking at before. Additionally he has doubled his number of consensus top 50 hitters, including the addition of top 5 overall Freddie Freeman. All the while Topczewski managed to retain the services of the ace who had the highest keeper value of his three top 20 overall pitchers.
I’m going to shock some people by saying this, but I like this trade a lot.
Don’t get me wrong, I don’t believe for one second that these deals were part of a cohesive retooling strategy by Topczewski, but fortunately intent doesn’t matter when it comes to results. Bo also has likely peaked and due to his low OBP skills has some regression risk baked in. But at a young age with an elite hit tool, I don’t think that’s imminent.
What does this trade mean for Topper’s chances at pursuing the long coveted Jackson Chourio?
“Dan offered Castillo for him,” said Patrick Weaver publicly. “I have at least two comparable offers. Without Castillo it won’t be Dan. It’s not propaganda. It’s facts.”
To that I say, who cares? Chourio is a wild card and Topczewski’s trades position him well to compete this season. Even his weakest keeper, Teoscar Hernandez, has a strong chance at 90+ RBI on a murderer’s row Dodgers lineup. Chourio absolutely won’t top that number this season. Chourio also could be in play for a trade at the deadline, being a highly touted prospect. Topper has positioned himself with several high value “unkeepable” trade options for that time of year should he fall out of contention.
Whether by hook or by crook, I like the set of keepers Topczewski has fallen ass backwards into better now than a month ago.
As for Johnson, this may seem boring and uninspired compared to the novel I just wrote, but good on him. Johnson’s biggest weakness was pitching and he addressed it in spades. Johnson now has an evenly balanced stable of elite bats and arms, Bichette was the elite hitter with the lowest ceiling and the highest chance of regression. Trading him for an ace was a smart move. Julio, Yordan, Castillo, and Wheeler are possibly the four combined best keepers on any one team in the league. Johnson has stealthily positioned himself to be a juggernaut out of the gate.
I’m also excited to see what the new name is.
