GRADE THE TRADE: I’M HAPPY. HOPE YOU’RE HAPPY TOO.
“People who don’t gamble aren’t worth talking to.”
-Marshal Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto
Since the nuclear ManChourio Tuesday Trade, the league has seen 5 more trades go down. Most were small and didn't warrant a full right up, but I'm going to summarize them before getting to our latest trade involving Ian and Michael. Sordid details following:
Mon. April 29th
JONATHAN TRADES JORDAN MONTGOMERY AND JACKSON MERRILL TO DAN FOR JORGE POLANCO AND NESTOR CORTEZ
Montgomery has been shaky so far this season, but should eventually be of equal caliber to Cortez who himself has been pitching way better than he probably is. This deal is a homer one as Jonathan is a Yankees fan (which we support and wish him the best on his life decisions even if we might not agree with them).
Polanco vs Merrill is the interesting one as every year it feels like some analyst tries to convince everyone that Jorge Polanco is a sleeper and this will be his breakout year. They've said that for six years and he's only tickled with that once. Merrill is just the same kind of upside but without the stink.
As it stands I like Dan’s side more, but it's not really far apart between these two, so hardly the egregious trade it was initially made out.
FRI. MAY 3RD
VINSON TRADES CORBIN CARROLL FOR MICHAEL’S FREDDIE FREEMAN
You just couldn’t stay quiet for a while could you, Mike?
This one was weird. Only a week after being on Mike’s team, he trades Freeman for a slumping Carroll. I don't know what Freeman did to garner this level of aversion from the league, but it's getting sad. Like 2023 Carlos Correa traded to every team level of sad. Only Freeman hasn't been bad. He has 4 home runs, 22 runs, 23 rbi, 1 stolen base, and a .309 avg and .901 ops. He's just been Freddie Freeman.
That being said, at least this trade is somewhat more fair and you can see the mentality of the owner's involved. Carroll’s ADP was 5th overall, putting him above Freeman’s 9th. Carroll also occupies the outfield, a position that has been difficult to fill in our 5 OF league. The hope is that his shoulder heals and he'll be able to mash again which would be quite the get for Mike. But the weird part is how Carroll still commanded full value despite these concerns. It's not offensive, like the last trade Freeman was involved in, but it is questionable.
Vinson, meanwhile, is desperate for stability and consistency for his team. This is Freeman's real value and this year appears to be no different.
sat. may 4th
richard trades bryce miller to patrick for alec bohm
I'm biased because hello, I'm Richard. I needed hitting and Bohm looks to be having a breakout year. Unfortunately Miller also seems to be having a breakout year and was probably the only way to get Bohm on my team. Pat's pitching is kind of a mess right now with all the injuries (some self inflicted) so the young Mariner looks to be a very good stabilizer for his staff.
Kind of a win-win here (plus I didn't have to give up Imanaga). Or at least it would have been until Bohm’s power dried up and Miller got immediately roughed up by the anemic Astros. So maybe a lose-lose here?
thur. may 9th
vinson trades tyler black to dan for ryan jeffers
A decent trade involving a hot young rookie for a guy in the midst of a hot streak (or perhaps breakout??).
Unfortunately Black almost immediately was sent back down to the minors as Christian Yelich was suddenly reinstated. Tough break, but that doesn't change that I like this trade for both teams. Vinson again, needs players who are hitting now and Jeffers is doing it at the oh so exclusive catcher position. There's no doubt Black will be back, especially with how bad Sal Frelick has been and how cold Blake Perkins has become.
Dan needs to start treading carefully here because this is now another Brewer he has traded for. While homerism is something we joke about, the fact is that not every player on your roster should be from the same team. There’s a lot of reasons for this but the two biggest is that not every player on that team is rosterable and when you have a lot of your roster as a mono team, it means you are especially susceptible to scheduled days off or team slumps. I don’t think Dan is in trouble yet but he should be careful to not let it catch up to him.
fri. may 10th
ian trades mike trout and kyle finnegan for jonathan’s nico hoerner and giancarlo stanton
This trade is a puzzle. A puzzle of a duck peeing on a dog that I wasn't interested in completing but I was interested in seeing the movie. With all due respect to Dan and his goal post moving to throw as much chaos into a trade as possible, this is what true chaos looks like.
Before I dive in, full disclosure: I have owned Mike Trout on my team since 2013. I love Mike Trout. How much do I love Mike Trout? Well with respect to Ronald Acuna Jr and Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout is the best player in baseball. Mike Trout is so good that in their jealousy, the baseball gods sitting atop the ruined remains of Olympus and Mar-a-lago, cursed him in 2019 with a body that will always be injured each season so that Trout will remember his own mortality so as to never challenge the gods.
Since I love Mike Trout and I mentioned him first, I'm starting with him. Before his torn meniscus, Trout was hitting a .220 ABG and an .866 OPS with 17 Runs, 10 HR, 14 RBI, and 6 SB. Yeah, that’s right. He stole 6 bases! Mike Trout was stealing bases again!
Sure, his average was in the gutter, but he has a .194 BABIP which means he was getting incredibly unlucky. His rest of stats like hard hit percentage, O-swing%, O-contact%, Z-swing%, and Z-contact% were all in line with his usual numbers. Heck, his contact had actually increased from a 75.5% last year to an 82.8%. Mike Trout was back to 2018 levels of production.
But injuries are the curse he must bear now and so Trout is out for about two months, optimistically. Having had this happen several years before, I can tell you that it’s more likely to be 2-3 months if he comes back at all.
This puts Ian in a precarious position. What value can you get from a player who is going to be out that long? And how can Ian free up space on his team with his influx of corner infielders?
The answer is: trade for an aging outfielder with a dubious launch angle (down by 4 degrees from last year) and Nico Hoerner. But is that all Stanton is? It might surprise some people to know that Stanton managed to get 24 home runs last year and more than 30 the two years before that. Giancarlo Stanton has this reputation of being washed out and a drain on the Yankees lineup. But really it’s only been his average that has been the washed up part. A .191 for only 24 home runs last year is not exactly the inspiring stat you want. Especially when compared to other batting average averse players like Kyle Schwarber who last year gave 47 home runs to go along with an equally putrid .197 AVG.
To combat that, Ian gets Nico Hoerner back. A guy known for his batting average and a chunky amount of stolen bases. There’s not much analysis to offer on Hoerner. He’s been a career .280 hitter and has developed a good amount of speed, although this year he’s on pace for his 2022 amount of SB (20) as he is currently 4 for 6 in steal attempts.
So what does Jonathan get for taking on a player who only will give him two months of production at best (but probably one month if we’re being honest)? He gets Nationals closer, Kyle Finnegan. In a holds/saves league.
Kyle Finnegan has thus far had a good year. A 1.65 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, 12 Saves, and a 2.00 K/BB. That all sounds good, except his xERA 4.43 and he’s a career 3.50 ERA pitcher. And that 2 K/BB? That’s pathetically bad for a RP who’s job is to come into only one or two innings.
Turning back to that “In a holds/saves league” comment, it needs to be pointed out that our league has an incredible depth to RP because of the freedom afforded to owners to pick the best pitcher, rather than the pitcher in a closer role. This means that the cost for RP should be at an all time low. They’re easily replaceable because you can find one of equal caliber on the FA wire. This allows for RP like Finnegan to be used as spice on trades. Not really frontliners, but an added bonus to even out a trade.
This would be fine, if Jonathan wasn’t taking on someone like Trout who is offering him nothing for a very long while.
This deal makes so little sense for both teams but is so inoffensive that it’s hard for me to parse. Ian needed to get rid of a corner infield spot on his roster to make room for Christian Yelich. Ian also understandably was freaking out with Yelich, Turner, and Trout all on the IL, thus tanking a good amount of production. But he didn’t trade any of his corner infielders, he traded Trout and a RP and then picked up another injured OF in Jasson Dominguez.
Jonathan meanwhile, already had three IL guys on his roster and is burning a bench spot on a guy who cannot help him until maybe the end of July? But he also gave up so little that is this even a problem?
Is any of this trade good? Is any of this trade bad?
Ian kind of comes out ahead because he gets some production from Stanton’s homers, but his outfield just got Yelich back and has Tyler O’neil, Jung ho Lee, and Bryan De La Cruz holding it down rather spectacularly. He definitely had the RP to spare and Jonathan could definitely use someone who’s tied for 2nd in MLB in Saves. And I suppose Stanton is an upgrade over Mark Canha even with his inability to play in more than 110 games in the last 4 years save for once (2020 notwithstanding).
The more I look at this trade, the more my head hurts, and not just because I’m trying to cut down on caffeine. It’s the kind of trade I find myself saying “I guess!” to it in exasperation.
Which probably means, it’s fair and I wish the owner’s all the best for it.
GRADES:
Ian: C
You got your precious power and all it cost you was a relief pitcher and the best player in baseball who probably isn’t coming back this year anyway (although I still believe because I can never quit Trout) and a relief pitcher that you know is going to regress and can be replaced on the FA. What dings you is that you still haven’t solved your more immediate problem with too many 1B, although now that Michael Busch has cooled off maybe that’ll solve itself.
Jonathan: C-
You got the best player in baseball, but he’s not helping you for a while, if ever (although maybe!). Unfortunately you didn’t get one of Ian’s corner guys which honestly could help you a lot considering how sad Spencer Steer and Maikel Garcia have been. You also asked for a RP, which is indeed how RP are used in trades, but it’s not exactly hard to find them and you picked the one guy most likely to regress from Ian’s team. However, you only had to give up Stanton and Hoerner who are hardly the juggernauts themselves so it’s not like you’re hurting from this trade.
This trade was a bunch of FA players and Mike Trout. I understand how difficult it is to value someone like Trout right now. He’s a generational talent when he’s healthy but when he’s injured he’s dead weight. Especially with his tendency to be out for the year without ever saying he’s out for the year. Jonathan needs to be prepared for the constant hope and stringing along of Trout news as the return date keeps being pushed back again and again.
Ashes to ashes.
