I LIKE IAN ON TOPPER: WHO ARE YOU CALLING TOP-HEAVY?
It's muscle. I swear.
off-season profile part 10
Welcome to the tenth of a 12-part weekly write-up which will take us all the way to the start of Spring Training. Each Friday I will examine, in reverse order of last year's regular season finish, each team's situation as the off-season gets underway. I'll break down the piece into three parts: What moves need to be made, Who is getting kept, and What needs to go right in order for that team to make the postseason in 2024.
All opinions are my own. If you disagree then you should know I have retained a high powered attorney who will not hesitate to pound you into the dirt for slander and/or libel without warning. You have been warned.
what moves need to be made?
What an introduction. Dan Topczewski's first season in the League was a roller coaster which started with a questionable MJ Melendez draft pick and ended with a playoff run which nearly unseated the eventual League Champion. He proved through his deft managerial style that he wasn't afraid to ride the hot hand, and built a formidable attack through a continual grind of waiver wire pickups which provided boost after boost. William Contreras, Cody Bellinger, TJ Friedl, Sal Frelick, and others were all picked up by Topczewski throughout the season and each of them provided significant value above their droppable replacements.
Not only that, but Topczewski managed to claw his way to a playoff spot despite the loss of significant keeper and draft day investments such as Wander Franco (Keeper), Carlos Rodon (Keeper), MJ Melendez (bad decision - round 2), Starling Marte (bad decision - round 3), and Kris Bryant (bad decision - round 4).
In fact, of Topczewski's original roster of 26 players, only 7 lasted the whole season, with only 3 of those 7 being players that were drafted instead of kept. Topczewski churned and burned his way to an inaugurual playoff berth utlizing the strength of his managerial attention, but is that a sustainable model for success?
Topczewski has pivoted this offseason to a top-heavy approach to his keepers. After having three keepers in the first six rounds of the draft in 2023, Topczewski is going even more all-in on high round value keepers in 2024. Five of Topper's first six rounds of the 2024 draft are projected to be occupied by keepers.
My first instinct is to say this, and Topczewski's decision to trade for Luis Robert Jr, were mistakes. Keepers in this format should generate value through separation between their keeper round and true value. Robert at best generates a round of value in exchange for Bellinger who likely generated several. In 2023, of the 10 players picked in round 2 of the draft, 5 are entering 2024 as consensus top-30 overall players. Round 2 continues to be a round where you can acquire players who generate signfiicant value for your team.
Topczewski is banking on the fact that he can generate positive value from his picks outside of the first six rounds of the draft, but last year only three of those players made it to the end of the season on his roster.
The move to make now is to generate value by trading one of his high-round keepers, which to his credit he has been trying to do, but those players by nature are difficult to deal. Vinson Mulvey has already flooded the market with first-round keeper trade options, making Gerrit Cole a less attractive trade chip, but he would be the most impactful trade he could make given that he has other aces waiting in the wings between Castillo and Peralta. A Cole or Castillo for Elly De La Cruz trade or something like it could be a godsend to this team.
Topczewski has assembled a strong stable of keepers including a top of the line pitching staff, but he is truly committing to his ability to win the game on the wire in order to supplement his core. It's a skill every owner has to rely on to some degree, but this extreme “boom or bust" application could blow up in his face.
who is getting kept?
I wanted to offer a bunch of alternative keeper options to run contrary to Topczewski's expressed strategy, but there really aren't any. While Topczewski did an admirable job of streaming valuable players in-season to create production, most of them will be drafted outside of the top-150 players in 2024, making them non-viable as keeper options in comparison to the talent he's amassed. So… here comes a very predictable recommendation on keepers:
GERRIT COLE (1)
Cole finally got his Cy Young win in a year where his strikeout numbers were significantly down. Baseball is weird. Even so, Cole traded in those reduced K's for a sub 1.00 WHIP and a sub 3.00 ERA, so most owners would take that. Underlying numbers say he's still prone to giving up hard contact and in Yankee Stadium the long ball always looms, but he's a consensus top-2 overall pitcher and with elite velocity, movement, and control, Cole will absolutely earn his pay as a first round keeper.
LUIS ROBERT JR (2)
The common refrain with Robert was that if he ever stayed healthy for a whole year he would be elite. LRJ finally delivered on that promise with 595 plate appearances of top 20 overall play. He still swings and misses more than is desirable and doesn't walk enough, but the tools made up for it this time. The question for prospective owners is, “Do you trust the health?” I don't, but Topper is kind of locked in now, so here we are.
LUIS CASTILLO (3)
This “Luis" is much more exciting to me. Castillo was always known for his fastball-changeup combo but now that he's with the Mariners he's added a filthy slider which gives him so much more dimension. This is the elite version of Castillo that owners always thought was in there, and in the third round he's a must-keep.
CHRISTIAN YELICH (5)
Yelich is my least favorite keeper because 1) We know what he is and there isn't any upside there and 2) His value in inflated due to an extremely shallow outfield pool. Maybe he sees an increase in counting stats with Hoskins hitting around him, but if Topczewski manages to fall into a better keeper option Yelich should be the first to go.
OZZIE ALBIES (6)
I was never a big Ozzie Albies fan, but he drank from the same batch of “Michael's Secret Stuff" that the rest of the Braves did and had a career year. Topczewski shouldn't expect another 30 homer season but 25HR with 10SB with great counting stats and an .800 OPS is still well within his wheelhouse and at round 6 you'll take that every time.
FREDDY PERALTA (9)
Homer-ism aside, Peralta is a top-20 pitcher at an SP4 price. The ERA can be volatile and health hasn't always been reliable, but with extreme strikeout upside you'll roll those dice. Besides, he's “The Man" in Milwaukee now, for whatever that's worth.
what needs to go right?
Topczewski has a reliable core, at least on the pitching side, so it's time to lean into upside with the rest of his draft picks. Because of the lack of value in his keeper slate he's going to need to hit on some upside plays later. If he makes the smart picks and gets a little lucky in the middle-late rounds or even in the minor league draft then I have confidence his in-season managerial attention can take him the rest of the way. The way this goes wrong is if he suffers a few injuries among his keepers. While most other teams can absorb such hits because they'll have redundancy with other early round staple pieces, what you see is what you get with Topper's crew. His team is the least suited among the contenders to suffer big injuries to top keepers.
Another thing to note though is that maybe Topczewski is most suited to sell hard at the trade deadline if things are going poorly. Every keeper he has will inflate to an almost un-keepable level next season, meaning this could be a “blow-it-up" year for him if things go sour. Could Topper be quick to the trigger to start an aggressive re-tooling if he's lingering in the back half in July? We shall watch with great interest…
IRL TEAM ANALOGUE:
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
You can certainly go far with a top heavy slate of names, but unless you get some production from cheap and young upside players you'll more than likely wind up falling short.
