PICKLE THE BEAST: 100% JUICED

Heller's team is built to hit homers, steal bases, and… pass steroid tests… probably

off-season profile part 9

Welcome to the ninth of a 12-part weekly write-up which will take us all the way to the start of Spring Training. Each Friday I will examine, in reverse order of last year's regular season finish, each team's situation as the off-season gets underway. I'll break down the piece into three parts: What moves need to be made, Who is getting kept, and What needs to go right in order for that team to make the postseason in 2024.

All opinions are my own. If you disagree I will give you the opportunity to contest me, but our debate shall not be a test of words, but rather muscle. Two moons from now you must meet me in the desert and best me in a series of feats of strength. Then, we will blood the winner in the sacrifice of a baby goat. The victor shall rise… blessed by pagan sorcery. Their success will be asssured. Do you dare to defy me? DO. YOU. DARE?

WHAT MOVES NEED TO BE MADE?

As we enter the top four teams it will get increasingly difficult to suggest moves as by nature these teams are more complete (for the most part). I am nothing if not persistent though, and I always have plenty of nits to pick. Andrew Heller built his 2023 success on the foundation of home runs and steals. Heller's keepers include three projected 30 homer players and three 30 steal players (Tatis being both). With superstars Olson, Tatis, and Riley augmented by speedy floor players Hoerner and Abrams, you can't poke too many holes in that group of five.

Heller's weakness last season and going into this offseason was pitching, and was the easy thing to poke at. I was all ready to tell Heller to sell off Nico Hoerner for all he was worth for a serviceable pitcher, but he had to go ruin this section by acquiring future comeback player of the year Walker Buehler for the ridiculously low price of a second round minor league draft pick. I never would have predicted that he could fill a hole (heh) so effectively… but what else should I expect from a devout Catholic. Praise be.

So now the only question becomes a last minute one. Wyatt Langford is waiting in the wings for Heller as a consensus top 4 MLB propspect. He tore through the minors last season batting .360 with ten homers and 12 steals across four levels in just 44 games. His OPS was a stunning 1.157. He's a five tool stud who is alost beyond reproach, which introduces a problem. If Langford makes the Rangers’ opening day roster out of camp then Heller has 7 keepers for 6 spots, which realistically means either Nico Hoerner or CJ Abrams are not getting a date to prom.

Do you start dangling Hoerner as a trade candidate now in preparation for this scenario? Maybe? It's a tough call, even more so if Langford gets off to a hot start in the spring. But at round 11 Hoerner is a signifcant value as a 30+ steal source with good batting average. If you line up with a good trade partner before Langford locks down the job I think you take it and take your chances with Langford's speculative job security. What a good problem to have.

Who is getting kept?

This is a pretty straightforward group, and boy is it mouth watering:

MATT OLSON (2)

Olson was an absolute fantasy monster in 2023 with 54 homers and a .283 average. It seems unlikely based on his history (never before got to 40 homers) that he will repeat the power numbers but even if he only hits 40 homers he'll still be a steal in the second round.

FERNANDO TATIS JR (3)

You know what's annoying about finding out that what you're drinking isn't 100% juice? Well, you probably didn't notice at the time that the flavor was off at all, but now you can't stop thinking about it. Was it the juice? Did the “from concentrate" and artificial flavors alter the resulting flavor? Hard to tell. Maybe it was just that your juice container fell off a motorcycle it shouldn’t have been on. But you'll always have that bit of doubt about what was in that juice… and if it mattered that much.

AUSTIN RILEY (7)

117/37/97 AND .281 Batting Average and he's the third best keeper on this list. That's really all you need to know about the quality of Heller's bats. Woof.

NICO HOERNER (11)

Hoerner busted out in a massive way last season, stealing 42 bags and hitting .283 in a year in which he took advantage of the new stolen base rules. His value is still largely wrapped up in those steals though, as he only hit 9 home runs and the advanced metrics don't project any more power lurking in those noodle arms. What we saw last year was probably the peak, so better to sell now instead of waiting for the fall.

CJ ABRAMS (14)

Am I seeing double? Abrams and Hoerner had very similar seasons, but Abrams has more headroom in the power department with a barrel rate over three times better than Hoerner. He won't hit for the average that Hoerner does, but he has the potential to hit twice as many homers, and that's a trade-off I'll take.

WALKER BUEHLER (25)

Have I mentioned enough times that I love the trade for Buehler? WELL TOO BAD I'M SAYING IT AGAIN. With Wyatt Langford waiting in the wings and Heller retaining his 1st round minor league pick, this was probably the easiest trade he ever said yes to. Buehler has a lot of question marks related to health and performance, but there is a decent chance he could return to top 20 form, which would be a massive coup for Heller.

HONORABLE MENTION - WYATT LANGFORD (FA)

This guy is the real deal and Nico Hoerner and CJ Abrams are redundant. If Langford gets the call then he needs to be kept.

what needs to go right?

Fernando Tatis needs to play 150 healthy, clean games. Walker Buehler's arm keeps it together for 140 innings and Heller drafts Wheeler or Yamamoto in the first round. Heller is another team that I expect to be angling for an ace right off the bat, but if he doesn't do that and Buehler doesn't pan out then he won't get another pick until the fourth round, at which point he may have Jordan Montgomery leading his staff. While pitching is alwasys available off the wire it would be a tough hole to dig out of. It is, as I said before, a nitpick, and I love Heller's chances to return to the playoffs in 2024.

IRL Team analogue:

st louis cardinals

They’ve got boppers who mash, but will they have a patchwork rotation?