THE PREDICTION OPUS
Step into my cave of wonders… wait… no… not like that… put that away
THE METHOD:
Prediction pieces are a dime-a-dozen and they’re all wrong. Fantrax will tell you one thing and Fantasy Pros another. All of them are based on the predictions of some AI that’s too busy plotting our inevitable demise to be able to understand the difference between a slider and a small hamburger. Not to mention that they like to predict who will win categories such as Innings Pitched which will be heavily dependent on the level of streaming that an owner engages in. No, the computers can take a break for this piece and go back to trying to outsmart those “I am not a robot” prompts. This article will focus on my highly subjective opinions of everyone’s teams broken down into three categories which will be rated on a scale of 1-10:
HITTING: How good your batters bop
PITCHING: How good your pitchers pop (the glove)
MANAGER: How good your thinker… does managing…
The final category is my attempt to compensate for the fact that 50% of everyone’s rosters will turn over before the season ends. What’s the point of projecting off the rosters today when those rosters won’t be remotely similar to the squads who cross the finish line? The “Manager” Grade will be based on my own opinion of that owner’s ability to evaluate talent, execute on tactical in-week decisions, and make beneficial trades.
At the end everyone will be scored out of a possible 30 points and ranked! In the case of a tie the higher Manager score will rank higher. So feast your eyes on the single definitive prediction source for 2024! Unless my opinion means nothing to you… in which case… why are you here?
kourtsideking (joey)
hitting: 5/10 pitching: 5/10 manager: 3/10
total: 13/30
Joey’s hitters have a couple of good core pieces in Witt Jr and Harper anchoring the floor. Aside from that the one thing his squad does better than almost anyone else is nab bags. Projections put his squad out-stealing the second place team by almost 30 bases. Joey is gonna steal more than my son when the snack cabinet is left open. Past that there are one too many “dead spots” in the lineup to elevate it past true middle. Suarez, McMahon, Varsho, and Vaughn are straight up bad with next to no chance to really show value above replacement level. Joey will need Gelof to take a step forward, Chisholm to stay healthy, and JT to stop aging in order to elevate this lineup past middle-of-the pack. As it stands… it’s fine. Gelof is the only player on paper who has the real potential to exceed his projections, which is a big problem considering the team is projected to be middle of the pack. Steals are 1/6 of the hitting stats and his lineup doesn’t do anything else particularly well.
On the pitching side it’s more of the same. Not an ace to be found. Cease and Javier were bad last year and need to be less so for this rotation to thrive. Logan Webb is the only true top 15 pitcher of the lot, with the crew filled out with high floor but low ceiling plays such as Ranger Suarez and Seth Lugo. Bradish and Senga have the potential to elevate this staff to the elite tier, but as my parents have always told me, “Potential is what you say you have when you’re justifying your failure”.
Joey is a risk averse, trade averse, capable manager who always sets his lineup and keeps up with his additions. He prioritizes getting “his guys” over making bold tactical decisions. It means he’s not likely to bottom out, but with his track record of never making the finals he can’t be given a vote of confidence either.
brokenrufus (Mark)
hitting: 8/10 pitching: 7/10 manager: 6/10
total: 21/30
Mark built his lineup in my image: Lots of power and let batting average be damned. Yordan, Julio, CES, Muncy, and maybe more will hit 30+ homers this year. Mark is gonna outslug teams in a big way. Even more importantly he has a lot of interesting talent that can pop off and exceed projections. CES is a still developing power hitter who now has a stranglehold on his lineup spot due to injuries. Ditto Gorman. Jeimer could see a big Great American Smallpark bump, and I love Rizzo to bounce back this season by abusing the short porch now that he’s clear of his concussion ailment from last season. The fact that JD Martinez is currently a bench player for Mark is all you need to know about how deep this lineup is.
Pitching here is built using the now eponymous Johnson method: Aces and relievers… lots of relievers. Wheeler and Castillo are both excellent of course, and I like Ober and Luzardo this year (Luzardo if he can stay healthy). Past that, Johnson has filled out his staff with his typical stable of relievers to ensure he wins SV/HD each week. This strategy has been fruitful for him in the past and dovetails well with his overwhelming lineup.
So if I think so highly of Johnson’s strategy why am I only rating him a 6 on the manager scale? Lack of flexibility. Mark employs a “set it and forget it” tactic which serves him well, but he has rarely adapted or pivoted off that tactic when the playoffs slip away. He also made ghastly sell-off trades last year including the now infamous deal which sent Freddie Freeman and Max Scherzer to Vinson Mulvey when Johnson still had a winning record with two months of regular season to go. If the strategy isn’t working Johnson’s instinct is to throw in the towel, and while his roster construction is strong, that lack of conviction and hands on problem solving is why his manager grade comes up short.
red soto cups (james)
hitting: 7/10 pitching 6/10 manager: 7/10
total: 20/30
I’ll be honest. I am biased against James.
THERE IT IS, STOP THE PRESSES, HE ADMITTED TO IT. But you stop right there with your pitchfork Mr. Swindell, it’s not because of you but rather who you choose to believe in. This lineup should be so good on paper with a top end of Soto, JRam, Seager, and Adolis. What an outstanding quartet to build off of, but what does James do? He drafts batting average chumps like Luis Arraez, Steven Kwan, and Jung Hoo Lee. It’s like buying a bottle of Johnny Walker Blue Label and cutting it with Kirkland brand cola. My stance on this is well known: Home runs and slugging are how you build a successful lineup since each extra base hit also gives you batting average, OPS, and HR, RBI, and Runs when it goes over the wall. Singles are half measures and the half measure is the methodology of the coward. James is hamstringing this core by diluting it with empty roster spots. Break free James, go all in, become one with the dark side.
On the pitching side James predictably suffers from a lack of a true ace to anchor his squad and instead will rely on the next tier down to stabilize his staff. My biases are on full display once again when I say that Mitch Keller is a pretender and Framber Valdez is overrated. However, Bobby Miller and Casey Mize are trendy upside picks this season with a lot to prove. Skenes could also be a game changer later in the season as he waits in the wings until the Pirates finish manipulating his service time.
James is a skilled manager at identifying young talent. His most glaring weakness is the opposite of Mark’s in that while he has strong tactical pivots mid-week, his strategy of favoring average-first boring schlubs holds him down. It’s time to break free of your slap hitter shackles James.
cashman’s cash outs (jonathan)
hitting: 4/10 pitching: 5/10 manager: 6/10
total: 15/30
The fact that Jonathan’s team isn’t going to come in last place this season is a flipping miracle given the hole he had to dig himself out of, so all of these numerical rankings should be taken in that context. YES, CONTEXT, I KNOW IT’S HARD BUT FEEL FREE TO THINK YOU PHILISTINES. Predictably, Sitko doesn’t have a true number 1 in his lineup but rather a patched up number 2 in Manny Machado. What I do like is how Sitko leaned HARD into upside players. This is exactly what he should have done to give himself a chance of surprising everyone this season as well as giving him a strong stable of possible keepers for 2025 and beyond. Volpe, Carter, Greene, and Walker are all players who have real potential this season to take a developmental leap into the top 50 class of hitter. Sitko could have gone for boring downside but he didn’t, and that was absolutely the correct move given his position. It does mean that his team has a huge potential for falling off the table, but what else was there to do?
On the pitching side Sitko is given a favorable boost from Gausman escaping injury and being ready to start the season. Between him, Justin Steele, and Jordan Montgomery he has a respectable trio of arms who won’t usually lose him the week. The reason this grade is a 5 instead of a 4 is because of Shane Baz and Walker Buehler waiting in the wings. If Buehler comes back in a month or so and is the ace we remember then this staff looks so much fuller. Again this was a fitting risk to take given his position, and I salute it.
Rating Sitko as a manager is difficult given we haven’t seen him manage in-season yet, but during the off-season he was engaged and aggressive in building out a respectable group of keepers. Sitko also excelled in the minor league player draft (Lawler injury notwithstanding) and I wouldn’t be surprised if I amend this score to be higher in a few months.
mendoza liners (michael)
hitting: 6/10 pitching: 9/10 manager: 7/10
total: 22/30
I feel like this lineup should be better. It’s weird right? I’m scrolling through these names and it’s a whose who of my least-favorite type of hitter: Boring with a low ceiling. What do I mean by that? Jesus Sanchez, Max Kepler, Lourdes Gurriel Jr, Andrew Gimenez. All of these hitters are 20ish homer .250ish batting average, post-hype “guys” who pretty much are what they are (yes I know Gimenez provides speed). I don’t like rostering too many of these players and Michael has a bunch of them. In addition, Michael has a real problem with steals. If Chourio sticks and runs like he could maybe i’m overreacting, but as it stands I count three players who will steal more than 20 bases each, and the vast majority who will be lucky to get to five. In the current steals environment that’s a problem. Yes it’s just one category and you shouldn’t build your team around it, but counting on a “zero” from that spot every week is dangerous in its own right.
On the pitching side you’d be hard pressed to find a better top three anywhere. Strider, Skubal, and Nola are not only three outstanding fantasy pitchers, but they compliment each other well in that Nola is a compiler, Skubal is solid with ratios, and Strider will unload a dumptruck full of K’s every five days and you’ll thank him for it. Bassitt, Pfaadt, and Quintana are respectable matchups plays and his relievers are relievers. Could he do with one more #4 type starter? Yeah probably but that’s a streaming issue. Nitpicks are why he’s a 9 and not a 10. This staff slaps.
Michael has a track record of recent success and good tactical instincts in-season. I wanted to give him an 8 but the sole reason I didn’t was because of the Burnes for Chourio trade. That deal still lives rent free in my gray matter and will for a long time. Giving up Burnes meant that Michael felt compelled to draft Nola in the first round when he could have had Altuve, Arozarena, or Trout instead to fill out positions where he is lacking. Instead he is punching from behind and for that he’s a 7 when he should be an 8.
shirley’s sox (brooke)
hitting: 5/10 pitching: 4/10 manager: 4/10
totaL: 13/30
5 out of 10? That seems harsh. The infield looks solid… of course you’ve got Ohtani… now let’s look at the outfield… OH IT BURNS, LOOK AWAY!
Any offense that has Devers, Lindor, and Ohtani won’t be bad, but when Cedric Mullins is your best player at that position things are probably going to get ugly. Verdugo and Esteury Ruiz probably won’t even be full time players. Outfield is a shallow position for everyone this season, but Brooke’s situation is particularly dire and runs the risk of pulling her otherwise solid roster into the doldrums.
It’s Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly against the world here, and I have workload concerns about Gallen. He himself has admitted that his massive inning count through the 2023 postseason isn’t sustainable two years in a row, and couple that with past health issues and it bears watching. You may point to Joe Ryan as a stable force in the staff but in the second half of last season the fastball that Ryan seemed to inexplicably hoodwink hitters with was suddenly very hittable. Ryan is giving up way too many homers and could see his ERA massively spike this season. Weaver has maybe the best crop of closers in the league and that could help stabilize her ratios, but it won’t take the place of a winning rotation in this format.
Weaver is an active manager who is attentive to her lineup construction, but like McDermott, she has, at times, too much loyalty to players she believes in or conversely may give up quickly on players with an established track record who can’t count themselves among her favorites. She is deliberate with her trade negotiations which means she rarely ever makes a bad trade but also is risk averse. This lack of flexibility is why I’m ranking her at a 4, but as a Commissioner she is a 10/10.
elly enchanted (richard)
hitting: 7/10 pitching: 7/10 manager: 7/10
total: 21/30
Richard amassed the most draft picks of any owner this year through excessive wheeling and dealing. With that draft capital he amassed a lineup of very good players, but hardly any GREAT ones. I believe every hitter in this lineup, perhaps with the exception of Brent Rooker, is above replacement level, which is more than most owners can claim. Additionally there are a lot of hitters with huge upside potential (Elly, Jones, Vinny-P). The weakness is that there isn’t stabilizing star power in a perennial top 15 hitter to bring him through the weeks where the young bats go cold. Maybe that’s an old-hat mentality that’s out of fashion in the new school, but stars are stars because they put the team on their back, and if Elly doesn’t do that this season then there isn’t anyone else in that lineup that will. This team is more 2022 Giants than 2024 Dodgers.
Richard is really hoping that Yoshinobu Yamamoto doesn’t stink. Much like Richard’s hitting, his pitching is full of GOOD but not GREAT. The exception of course is Yamamoto. The raw stuff there has first round upside, but if it doesn’t materialize this season then he’s hoping his volume of Glob pitchers will bring him through the grind. Besides the obvious Japan bias, Richard has a big WHIP problem with his staff as currently constructed between Shota’s home run tendencies and Darvish’s propensity to give up hard contact. That being said, Pepiot, Imanaga, Pivetta, and yes Yammy all have intriguing potential to rise above their draft stock. It’s a fun rotation with a lot of potential warts.
Richard is possibly the most dialed in, attentive, driven manager in the history of the league. He’s rated a 7 instead of an 8 or 9 for one reason: His biases towards or against certain players override his good sense.
Given the current lineup construction was it smart to stick with Joe Musgrove as a keeper over Tyler Glasnow? Was it smart to trade Jose Ramirez in 2023 for Cedric Mullins? Is Josh Jung going to be a better keeper pick than Oneil Cruz? Richard loves the players that he loves and hates the players that he hates. That’s fine, but it is a blind spot. Regardless his track record of three titles and his immense knowledge of the fantasy landscape net him a strong grade in this category, that like the other two marks is one step away from greatness.
portabello burger shop (ian)
hitting: 6/10 pitching: 6/10 manager: 7/10
total: 19/30
I love this lineup in a lot of ways, but it would be foolish of me not to acknowledge that a lot of things need to go right for this to end in a playoff run. Trout and O’Neill carry huge injury risk. Cruz and Hoskins are both coming off of massive lower body injuries that can have unpredictable skill impacts. Busch, Suwinski, Burger, and Lux are all waiting to take that next step. There’s a ton that can go wrong, but also a lot that can go right. The range of outcomes is massive which makes the true value and production hard to pin down, but that’s why we play the games.
Pretty much the same story as the lineup. Glasnow and Ragans have ace potential coupled with tremendous injury risk. Also past the big 3 in this staff the depth has quality questions all the way down. I can dream on Bello, Crawford, and Sanchez taking the next step into top 20 SP territory, but I can just as easily see a future where they’re dropped in a month. It’s boom or bust all the way down, aside from Pablo. We love Pablo.
I will freely admit that I make bold and at times ill-advised trades. I also have a tendency to handicap myself by trading away too many draft picks, preventing me from having the depth that other teams have. Last season I traded away the best fantasy pitcher and hitter and didn’t get a title in return, a failure by any accounting of managerial skill. By all rights I deserve to miss the playoffs this season. If I don’t though you better believe that Manager score is going to jump to a 10 in 2025.
Speaking of which…
bux in six (vinson)
hitting: 9/10 pitching: 7/10 manager: 10/10
total: 26/30
The defending champ is running out a lineup of mashers… Fragile fragile mashers. The good news is that even if George Springer, Giancarlo Stanton, Byron Buxton, and Royce Lewis all get hurt, Vin will be fine. This lineup is very deep with tons of star power supplemented with a good mix of stability (See Bryan Reynolds), and speculative choices (Ke’Bryan Hayes). It’s thoughtful and perfectly assembled to take the hits and keep coming. The only reason it’s a 9and not a 10 is because 1. Thairo Estrada and Willy Adames are very “meh”, and 2. It’s not as good as last year’s lineup (an impossible standard I know).
The pitching staff is where Vin appears more mortal. Much rests on the backs of George Kirby and Max Fried, who will have to make up for their middling strikeout numbers with continued ratio dominance. Past that I love Chris Sale and Michael King (I’m so angry Mulvey got them instead of me). Woo would have been a happy bonus to this rotation if he wasn’t opening the season hurt (bad luck). The reason this staff ranks at only a 7 is the lack of a true top 10 ace. Kirby could take the step this season by ramping up his strikeout numbers but Fried likely will keep being the Fried we know (slightly boring). Without that staff anchor the flaws are magnified if Greene continues to stink, Sale punches a water cooler, and King doesn’t work out for San Diego.
What can I say, the man exudes a pheromone. Vinson is the best talent evaluator in the league who almost always comes out ahead in his trades. He is meticulous and dedicated to a fault. You’re hardly ever going to get the jump on the Mulvey. I could try to find nits to pick or tiny mistakes to inflate, but it’s easier to just recognize the skill and dedication and tip your cap to it.
pickle the beast (andrew)
hitting: 8/10 pitching: 3/10 manager: 7/10
total: 18/30
What a bunch of sluggers. Between Olson, Riley, Schwarber, and Tatis Jr you are probably looking at 150 homers alone, which is insane. Abrams and Hoerner will bring a massive amount of steals, and then the rest will… do something I guess. In actuality the thing keeping this lineup from a top score are the MASSIVE dead spots. Someone needs to tell Heller that Whit Merrifield is a bench player. Also Correa, Pena, and Drury are replacement level at best. With Langford lying in wait though this roster could outslug any other, and that terrifies me.
This team likely has the greatest disconnect between hitting and pitching potential. There isn’t a single pitcher on this staff that I like. Berrios, Bieber, and Stroman are all on the sheer cliffs of their aging curves. Yes I know Bieber went to driveline and had a great spring, but I want to see it in-season before I believe it. Gray and Gore were homer picks and both will inflate Heller’s ratios more than my waistline at a Thanksgiving dinner. Even Verlander, who is available when he repairs his aging body, is likely to finally succumb to father time and see his ratios become fantasy negatives. It’s a bad staff. The relievers are good I guess but that’s it.
Heller is steady as they come and underrated as a manager. During his entire 14 year run as a LOMG owner he has only finished in the bottom half of standings twice. He’s a smart, dialed in manager whose two weaknesses are a healthy dose of homer-ism and a lack of time compared to his peers due to his incredible professional and family success. Don’t sleep on him. He’s always there.
i like ian on topper (dan)
hitting: 8/10 pitching: 4/10 manager: 6/10
total: 18/30
Dan’s lineup is quality up and down with very few patchwork jobs. His outfield has some holes, including Siri and Velazquez, but I’m willing to give those a pass because of the sparse OF environment as well as the outstanding quartet of Freeman, Albies, Bichette, and Robert Jr to anchor the bats. Torkelson is a savvy pick with potential to springboard into the top-50 hitter ranks and Castellanos and Bregman will provide dependable if slightly boring counting stats to pad the light weeks. It’s a lineup that was arranged with a deft hand with room to grow in the right places.
As much as I like Dan’s lineup I really don’t care for his rotation. The only pitcher that could remotely be considered “Ace-worthy” is Peralta, but he is a very hard sell to get the innings necessary. Rodon and Varland are possible reclamation projects and some people seem to believe in Bibee, but really it’s a blob of “guys”. Last year that didn’t matter as Dan was able to stream his way to a playoff berth, but that’s a hard edge to balance on without slipping and having the razor cut your balls off.
This was the hardest “Manager” rating to decide on. One one-hand, Dan was able to take a substandard roster and put the screws to the eventual Champion in the first round of the playoffs. On the other, he had an inconsistent offseason of trading in which he dealt for Jordan Montgomery and Teoscar Hernandez and failed to keep either of them. He dealt four draft picks and pivoted this way and that, jumping from strategy to strategy in an inefficient way which cost him the draft capital he so clearly coveted. If we go based on last season’s results alone then Dan should be a highly rated manager, but this offseason has planted the seed of doubt as to whether the results were more “beginner’s luck” than anything.
you don’t know jax (patrick)
hitting: 9/10 pitching: 8/10 manager: 8/10
total: 25/30
It should come as no surprise that a lineup with Acuna and Judge is rated so highly. Patrick weaves young up and coming players like Casas and Henderson with high floor veterans such as Goldschmidt and Murphy. Story and Eloy are calculated risks that Patrick can afford to take because he has two of the best outfielders in baseball padding his stats. This is a tremendous lineup which is only held back by the high probability that Bryant and Eloy are unusable in a few months. Aside from that Pat will bludgeon many teams into submission.
The rotation at first glance looks incomplete, but depth at this point in the season is not a necessity since all teams will be streaming in hopes of finding undrafted talent to fill out their rotations. Burnes, Snell, and Grayson are as strong as a top 3 as you could possibly ask for when your first two draft rounds were occupied by Acuna and Judge. What’s more, Patrick has Gerrit Cole and Eury Perez waiting in the wings for when they hopefully get healthy. A rotation with those five would match up well with any other staff in the league. Weaver was in a strong position to take those injured arms and with his offense firing on full cylinders he will take a Dodger-like approach to the season in that he is only going to get stronger the later it gets.
Rating Patrick as a manager is trickier that you would expect. While he has a reputation as a skilled trader and old-school talent evaluator (the scout mentality, if you will), his results have been wildly inconsistent, ranging from two years of bottom third performance, back up to two years of playoff appearances, and then back to the cellar last season. He’s an owner who is not afraid to make the decison to sell, but occasionally pulls the eject lever too early. His most valuable skill though is a critical eye for self-evaluation. Patrick’s ability to ruthlessly pick apart his own strategies makes him a wily opponent who always keeps a wary eye on the future. He has never had protracted absensces from relevance and doesn’t fall too deep into homer-ism.
FINAL STANDINGS:
VINSON MULVEY - 26/30
PATRICK WEAVER - 25/30
MICHAEL STARON - 22/30
RICHARD MARTINDELL JR - 21/30
MARK JOHNSON - 21/30
JAMES SWINDELL - 20/30
IAN SHAW - 19/30
ANDREW HELLER - 18/30
DAN TOPCZEWSKI - 18/30
JONATHAN SITKO - 15/30
brooke weaver - 13/30
joey mcdermott - 13/30
