WEEK 1 RECAP: OVERREACTION THEATER
Week one of a fantasy season is like the first week of a fledgling relationship. Every text gets over-analyzed, every kind smile or flippant comment gets blown out of proportion. Does that giggle mean she thought you were funny or is she just hoping you’ll stop talking? It took her half an hour to answer the last text but we were clearly in the middle of a conversation… Oh my God she hit me with the, “K". Why did I tell the joke with the paraplegic?! DO-OVER, I WANT A DO-OVER!!!
The point is that this early in the year, none of us know if we are good or bad. These are the scary weeks where our carefully crafted off-season stratagems get slapped in the face by the real world, and the real world has a big, wet hand. Will our players slap back? Or will they whimper and run away? More importantly, how do we parse what is meaningful, helpful data and what is noise?
…
Wait, you thought I’d have an answer to that? I have no idea. Let’s go overboard on some people!
brokenrufus (w) vs koursideking (L)
7 - 5 - 0
You could not come up with a more opposite pairing when it comes to relief pitching philosophy.
Mark came out with a solid win this time but his tried and true strategy has serious holes. His reliever core isn’t as sturdy as it usually is, with Alzolay and Kimbrel both having their share of warts. Ober and Luzardo also failed to live up to pre-season expectations in their first appearances. Ober’s first start single-handedly ruined Johnson’s ratios for the whole week (8 ER in 1.1IP).
Meanwhile, despite McDermott losing this set, his pitching had one of the most dominant performances of the first week. Javier, Lugo, and Houck were particular standouts. He has already decided to punt SV/HD, which is not advisable this early, but if his starters continue to overperform it may not matter. All in all call it a very vanilla matchup with two teams who fought to a near draw. Utterly forgettable, and this early, that’s okay.
bux in six (l) vs cashman’s cash outs (w)
3 - 9 - 0
Jonathan Sitko wins this year’s very first UPSET SPECIAL by not just beating, but TROUNCING Vinson Mulvey in Week 1. How thoroughly did Sitko dominate this matchup? Sitko won every hitting counting stat by at least 6 (which includes home runs and steals). He was second in the league this week in home runs and RBI, third in steals, and first in AVG and OPS. Much of Sitko’s early success can be attributed to early season breakouts Volpe, Steer, and Garcia, not to mention Marcel Ozuna’s 4 homers. Sitko was no slouch in the pitching categories either, but the loss of Steele will be difficult to overcome. Buehler’s return can’t come soon enough.
On the other side of the ball it’s difficult to say that there’s any reason to panic. Some weeks just be like that. However, it does bear watching to see how Mulvey handles his subpar pitching performances to this point. Kirby and Fried will probably be fine, but if they aren’t then things get shallow very quick in Bux-ville.
i like ian on topper (l) vs elly enchanted (w)
3 - 9 - 0
What a tremendous relief this victory must have been for Martindell, who had such an apocalyptic start to 2023. Not this year though, this year must have felt like a welcome pee break after a 4 hour driving session with a big gulp in the cup-holder. censored
Sweet release.
In reality, both these squads had underwhelming offensive outputs. Neither team had more than 10 homers nor did they break .700 OPS. Martindell will have to coax his bats to wake up in order to keep momentum going. That said, Martindell has hit so far on his pitching bets. Miller, Pivetta, Imanaga, and Pepiot all had stellar starts to the season, and should even half of them continue to perform at a high level then this staff will roll through most matchups. It’s just a shame that Elly hasn’t homered yet…
On the other side this couldn’t have gone much worse. A batting average of .209 and OPS of .616 for the week puts Topczewski firmly in the cellar for offensive production. It’s okay though because next week he’s up against Ronald Acuna Jr and Aaron Judge, and I’m sure both of them will keep sleeping out of courtesy. Speaking of which…
pickle the beast (w) vs you don’t know jax (L)
9 - 3 - 0
I hope someone had a combined average OPS of .700 for Acuna and Judge on their bingo card, because I sure as shit didn’t.
What do you even do with that? Neither player looks or is complaining of injury, so the best you can do is shake it off and move on. The problem though, is that this offense so far looks like it will live and die with Acuna and Judge’s performance. Aside from Judge, Gunnar Henderson is the only player on Weaver’s team to hit more than one HR so far this season. It’s not a comforting thought.
Like an atomic clock though, Heller keeps on ticking. His offense boasted solid top half of the league numbers and though his ratios were inflated he let them become so in order to lock down counting stats once it became obvious he would win the bulk of the offensive categories. As long as Heller continues to roll out reliable performances his stellar managing will keep him competitive in most weeks. Time will tell though if his pitching staff is better than the awful review I gave it before the season began.
shirley’s sox (w) vs red soto cups (l)
7 - 4 - 1
Swindell was inches from victory before Weaver had a Vesuvius-like home run performance on the last day, putting victory out of reach. Even so, he should be fairly pleased with his offensive performance as he comes at the top of the league in Runs and near that in RBI and average (Thanks Arraez, I guess).
Stevens has been riding high on the astonishingly good performance of Garret Crochet, who has yet to allow more than two runs in a start and has a WHIP of .667. Surely it’s time for a Crochet themed name change for the Sox? It’s just too obvious not to happen.
Also Lane Thomas stole 3 bases today just so that Swindell wouldn’t lose the category. For that reason and the fact that he’s a Nat, he will have James’ undying love. (pay no attention to the .451 OPS behind the curtain)
honey nut chourios (w) vs portabello burger shop (L)
6 - 5 - 1
Staron has the best offense in the league so far, leading in Home Runs, RBI, and coming in second in OPS. With the power he brought to bear against my team I feel lucky I didn’t lose by more, and it’s astonishing that I was winning at all. Staron has a league leading EIGHT players with at least two homers on his team. Only one of his hitters that has been on his team since the start of the season hasn’t homered yet (Come on Gimenez, catch up). It’s a gross display of power and I rightly tremble before it.
On my side, I feel okay. My team is what I hoped it would be in that it does everything at least “okay” and nothing badly. I can work with that and hopefully I’ll leverage that well-roundedness (yes that’s a word, shut up) against McDermott next week.
quick fire notables:
Staron’s victory was phyrric after losing Strider so early. I wonder who trades for him before the deadline as a keeper asset when they’re out of it?
Vinson, I should have put in my number one waiver claim for Jared Jones. There. You happy?
Blake Snell makes his first start of the season tomorrow. If he looks good then Patrick suddenly has a rotation that looks… good? Who would have thought he’d be pitching first.
Richard Martindell Jr is in first place for the first time since before the Washington Nationals won the World Series. Let that sink in. *This stat may not be correct
All Boston Red Sox starting pitchers are fantasy viable. After all the talk in the off-season about how bad their rotation was… this is a strange timeline.
week 2 matchup to watch:
cashman’s cash outs vs honey nut chourios
The two most prolific offenses in the first week go against each other in week 2. If Sitko can pull this off his team is officially “For real life” as the cool kids say.
