WEEK 2 RECAP: A NEW BALANCE OF POWER

Art by: Richard Martindell Jr

We are now 10% of the way through the regular season! To translate that into an analogy you can understand, we are now 6 seconds into the length of your average love-making session. What a milestone! Now that we have finished with the foreplay of the year, what does it foretell about the weeks to come? Well, it’s clear that, as is common with predictions, NO ONE KNEW SHIT.

The reigning Champion finds himself in the cellar, placed there in part by the league upstart, who has knocked off the last two Champions. Okay, that’s pretty crazy, but what about that team with the two best outfielders in baseball on his team and Corbin Burnes? Surely he must be doing well. What, he hasn’t won a game? That’s preposterous. You couldn’t write a more absurd start to the season.

Let’s get into the weeds shall we? It’s Week 2 and already nothing makes sense.

you don’t know jax (t) vs i like ian on topper (t)

6 - 6 - 0

The Weaver offense is a little… hard to look at?

What seemed like a concerning but possibly innocuous offensive misfire for Weaver in Week 1 now looks like a dangerous pattern of impotence. Ronald Acuna Jr has still not hit a home run though he is providing more than enough stolen bases. The problem goes far past Acuna though. Weaver’s average and RBI totals for Week 2 were the worst in the league, and he currently is the bottom dweller in the standings in offensive rotisserie points at a paltry 16.5. He is last in runs scored, home runs, batting average, and OPS. Aside from underperforming studs like Acuna and Goldy, Weaver has a tremendous amount of dead weight all up and down his lineup. Goldschmidt, Julien, Neto, and Rafaela are hitting below the Mendoza line. Because the problem is so widespread there isn’t much to do now other than hope people get hot. As bad as this week looked on the offensive side things could have been a lot worse.

Topczewski had the opportunity to put the screws to Weaver this week but was betrayed by some putrid pitching performances from DL Hall, Sean Manaea, and Tanner Bibee. Topper continues to rely on streaming to bludgeon his enemies into submission like he did in 2023, but he will be looking for greater reliability from his offense to supplement the tactic, especially since the waiver wire for pitchers looks particularly sparse this season. The loss of Luis Robert Jr has left his lineup vulnerable in the outfield, but the infield is still solid enough not to cause alarm. Nick Castellanos has to get hot at some point right?

red soto cups (t) vs brokenrufus (t)

6 - 6 - 0

Both teams managed to their strengths in this case and the tie felt like a case of mutually assured destruction.

On Johnson’s side, he bludgeoned his way to 14 homers, 15 RBI, and somehow a .222 batting average. Those are numbers that really bring a smile to my face. Johnson also played to volume to grab IP and K’s after it became clear his ERA and WHIP was out of reach. This is a sizable pivot from Johnson’s usual tactics of “set it and forget it” managing as he used all but one of his free agent transactions. A special shout-out goes to Josh Naylor who smashed his way to a 1.577 OPS for the week. Keep mashing you beautiful man.

Swindell on the other hand did what he did best and hit for a very high batting average with a lot of steals. James has to be happy with his other offensive numbers (47 runs, 11 HR, and 41 RBI) which would have been enough to sweep some teams. On the pitching side he was unfortunately stung by David Bednar’s collapse but otherwise strung together a run of good starts from glob-like pitchers. The Bobby Miller injury hits hard though and you wonder how long his good fortune on the mound can last without him. For the time being it’ll be the Logan Gilbert Show with a bunch of backup dancers.

pickle the beast (w) vs bux in six (l)

10 - 2 - 0

This was a statement win. Move over Mulvey, Heller is here for your throne.

As much as Mulvey’s squad continues to struggle to put out elite numbers on either side of the ball, this outcome was more about Heller’s dominant week than anything, particularly on the pitching side. All of the sudden MacKenzie Gore, Jose Berrios, and Paul Blackburn decided to throw out ace level performances which left Mulvey with limited options to counter. Heller’s performance passes the smell test as well with him sliding into second place in rotisserie points with the bonus that he has yet to be bitten by the injury bug in the same way as many other teams. What’s more, Nico Hoerner, Wyatt Langford, and to a lesser extent Schwarber have yet to realize the potential that is expected from them, so the offense still has a higher ceiling to hit.

On the other side, the Mulvey war machine continues to sputter. The offense was “okay” this week with a disappointing 8 HR and 33 RBI, but the real concern continues to be the pitching. Fried bounced back nicely and Jones continues to be a game-saving pickup, but past that there isn’t much to celebrate. Kirby, King, and Greene have yet to find their footing. The good news for Mulvey is that despite the rough start he still ranks “middle-of-the-pack” in most rotisserie categories, but without a cavalcade of stars to carry him through weeks like last year it may be time for him to trade Jared Jones to someone for a top 10 overall player to get his team into gear. Corbin Carroll hit his first homer of the year though, so everything is probably fine.

Elly enchanted (l) vs Shirley’s sox (W)

4 - 8 - 0

Don’t look now, but Brooke Weaver is off to her strongest start in years and sits at 3rd in the league with a 15-8-1 record. The 8—4 score is a bit deceiving though as this matchup was competitive in 4 or 5 categories going into the last day and could have easily swung in the other direction. BUT IT DIDN’T, so let’s sing the praises of the players who made it so. Mullins, Ohtani, and William Contreras mashed their way to over 1.000 OPS weeks while Zac Gallen and JOE FUCKING RYAN remembered they were supposed to be good. Rafael Devers’ four game absence due to a sore shoulder is concerning though and could explain his poor start. It’s worth keeping an eye on, but should he return and start adding his true value to Weaver’s offensive production then maybe this start is sustainable.

Ah this does feel familiar. Martindell had a perfectly serviceable offensive week but the pitching which carried him to success in week 1 let him down hard in week 2. Not a single one of his starters tallied more than 6 k’s in a start this week and Eflin, Musgrove, Darvish, and Paxton had starts with WHIPS which all ballooned over 1.6 at the low end. Insult met injury when Pivetta went down following a right elbow flexor strain as well. Having seen Jekyll and Hyde when it comes to Martindell’s pitching, it’ll be crucial for Yamamoto and Musgrove to right the ship against Johnson’s solid squad in week 3.

oneil & o’neill attys at law (w) vs kourtside king (l)

9 - 3 - 0

Hunter Brown ruined this week for McDermott.

That is not hyperbole. Prior to the absolutely apocalyptic Hunter Brown start, Joey McDermott had a team ERA below 2.00. Then this happened:

0.2 IP, 0 K’s, 121.50 ERA, 18.00 WHIP

So horrible it needed a second gif

Joey was done in by the worst fantasy pitching performance in history (not an exaggeration). Brown gave up the most runs (9) in a start in history that didn’t last a full inning. The only other pitcher he deployed this week that had an ERA over 5 in his start was Tanner Houck at 6.35. Ranger Suarez and Dylan Cease both tossed six innings of shutout ball. Remove Hunter Brown’s start and its possible McDermott would have flipped two pitching ratios and put this squarely in the toss-up category, but regardless I will take the win without complaint and thank the baseball gods for my good fortune. Sitko should not expect such good fortune in his matchup, though he may not need it. And speaking of which…

cashman’s cash outs (w) vs honey nut chourios (l)

8 - 3 - 1

The balance of power has changed

Sitko wins his second UPSET SPECIAL, but from here on out he won’t be going into matchups as the underdog. His offense inexplicably continues to beat opponents into submission. His 58 runs, 54 RBI, and .845 OPS led the league for the week. Even more than that he masterfully managed his way to a sub 3.00 ERA and sub 1.100 WHIP in which Yusei Kikuchi (you heard me), Spencer Turnbull (Yes he’s still pitching), and Nick fucking Lodolo (YES HIM) combined to allow 3 runs in over 21 innings. These innings accounted for OVER HALF of Sitko’s total innings! So far Jonathan has been running laps around the league with his deft hand and shrewd tactics. Will it last? I have no idea, but I’m not picking against him anymore.

Staron had another astonishing offensive output but unfortunately he ran into a buzzsaw and there was no way around it. Despite his underwhelming record though, Staron’s underlying numbers show that there is no reason for concern. He ranks second in the league in hitting rotisserie points and has unlocked the power of a fully armed and operational Pete Alonso (4 HR this week). The road won’t get easier though as Staron continues his early season gauntlet against Heller in week 3.

quick fire notables:

• “You Don’t Know Jax”, and “I Like Ian on Topper” have less than half as many homers so far this season as any of the top 3 ranked teams in homers in the league.

• Dan Topczewski doesn’t have a single SV/HD so far this season.

• Vinson Mulvey is officially off to his worst team start EVER. In 2021 his team started 10-13-1 through the first two weeks. He would go on to finish that season at 109-126-17

• James Swindell and Vinson Mulvey are tied for the greatest disparity between their team Roto points and standings (both are 3 spots lower in standings than their roto score reflects)

  week 3 matchup to watch:

  bux in six vs you don’t know jax

  Two highly rated teams coming into 2024 that are both grossly underperforming. One team has an opportunity to turn the season around while the other may end up in a crippling hole.