ELLY ENCHANTED: MURPHY’S FIRST LAW

Welcome to the second of a 12-part weekly write-up which will take us all the way to the start of Spring Training.  Each Friday I will examine, in reverse order of last year’s regular season finish, each team’s situation as the postseason gets underway.  I’ll break down the piece into three parts: What moves need to be made, Who is getting kept, and What needs to go right in order for that team to make the postseason in 2024.  

All opinions are my own. If you have any complaints please send them to krabbypattypat@gmail.com

WHAT MOVES NEED TO BE MADE?

Richard Martindell Jr has a reputation for horrendous luck. Last season he outdid himself. Elly Enchanted’s combined record through the first 5 weeks of 2023 was 11-47-2 (.189), one of the worst starts to a season in League history. Now, how much of that was his fault? Well, of the teams he lost to, only Mi Cases Es Su Casas would end the year with a losing record. Two of these first five teams would go on to the Championship round. Additionally, Elly Enchanted suffered horrendous injury and trade luck, with Vinny Pasquantino and Shane McClanahan both suffering season ending injuries and Mike Trout, Joe Musgrove, and Tyler Glasnow all missing significant time. Oh, yeah, and Wander Franco of course…

This though, dear reader, is where we come to the other staple of a Martindell run of misfortune: looking the devil in the face and saying, “I dare you”

Musgrove and Glasnow both started the season injured, putting Elly Enchanted behind the 8-ball from the beginning. Add to that the fact that Martindell didn’t draft another starting pitcher until, checks notes, Sean Manaea in round 17, and you can guess where this ended up.

With his team now extending a playoff drought to four seasons, it’s time to look ahead. Martindell has already traded away Oneil Cruz and Tyler Glasnow for a third round pick, putting him in a position where if he chose to, he could enter the draft with 11 picks in the first 10 rounds. In his shoes I would also explore the market for Elly de la Cruz. Cruz’s value is astronomically high, as his ADP has now crept inside the top 50. There is always the chance he isn’t able to control his free swinging ways and has severe regression in his sophomore season. A trade of Cruz for an established star to build around would be inviting. Would Cruz be enough to pry Vlad Jr away from Mulvey? Bobby Witt from McDermott? These are the sorts of feelers Martindell should be putting out. Trout is gone, it’s time to look for a new core. Selling high on Elly is risky, but it could also yield huge results.

WHO IS GETTING KEPT?

Martindell has a nice stable of keepers to choose from, most of them possessing great draft values. Here are my picks:

Joe Musgrove (11)

At this point we know what Musgrove is. Top of the line stuff with a moderate injury history (some of it un-earned) and good strikeouts. He’ll be a top 20 starting pitcher again this season and in round 11 that’s a definite keep.

Cedric Mullins (21)

Woof, that batting average. The further we get from Mullins’ dynamic 2021 season, the more fluky it looks. Exit Velocity, Barrel rate, and hard hit rate all fell in the bottom half of the league last year. But Mullins still possesses the sprint speed to swipe 30+ bags, and if he could somehow recapture his offensive form and hit at least 20 homers he will more than justify this position.

Elly De La Cruz (23)

Elly will be one of the most watched young players in spring training this season. His power and speed are gargantuan but so is his strikeout propensity. If he can make improvements in his swing and miss rate he has top 10 overall potential, making this a no brainer.

Walker Buehler (25)

Coming off a lost season due to Tommy John, Buehler is another massive unknown. Historically, pitchers recovering from their second Tommy John surgery don’t fare as well as those recovering from their first. But at round 25 he’s still a no-brainer keeper, and if he flashes elite stuff in spring training he could be a valuable trade chip as his name value will cause him to rocket up draft boards.

Bobby Miller (FA)

Miller may not have the outright elite stuff that other young pitchers of his ilk have, but he pitches in a great system and showed top-20 potential down the stretch last season. He is a worthwhile keeper this late.

Zack Gelof (FA)

The only worthwhile player in Oakland has a rosy 2024 fantasy outlook. He isn’t a “no brainer” keeper here but if I have to choose between a young hitter with potential and a fringe pitcher who just peaked (Eflin), i’ll take the hitter keeper every time.

WHAT NEEDS TO GO RIGHT?

The pathway to contention for Martindell isn’t as nebulous as you would first think. The easiest way back to the postseason will be if 1) Elly De La Cruz keeps his strikeout rate under 30%. 2) Walker Buehler returns to Ace status. and 3) Richard doesn’t mess it up in the draft.

Allow me to explain #3. Martindell has a strong core of young players at good keeper positions, but more importantly he has 11 draft picks in the first 10 rounds. With dynamos like De La Cruz and potentially Buehler to build around, the big rule will be “Don’t get too cute”. No “reliever heavy” strategies or big injury risk hitters. A balanced draft with proven talent up and down the board to supplement the young stars he has kept and this is absolutely a team that can bounce back in a big way this season.

IRL TEAM ANALOGUE:

CINCINNATI REDS

Young talent abounds, now just go out there and spend a little and let things take care of themselves.