DELAWARE VANILLA BRYCE: A BRIEF HISTORY OF FUTILITY
off-season profile: part 1
Welcome to the first of a 12-part weekly write-up which will take us all the way to the start of Spring Training. Each Friday I will examine, in reverse order of last year’s regular season finish, each team’s situation as the postseason gets underway. I’ll break down the piece into three parts: What moves need to be made, Who is getting kept, and What needs to go right in order for that team to make the postseason in 2024.
All opinions are strictly my own and readers are encouraged to type their complaints into the comment section*.
What Moves Need to Be Made?
Twelfth place finish, tenth place finish, and twelfth place finish. There’s no way to sugarcoat that. Eric Mucha’s first three seasons in the league have been the fantasy equivalent of attempting to build a house on quicksand. So how does Mucha right the ship?
Mucha faces the twin problems of very little valuable young talent as well as no stable base of stars. This makes for very little capital to trade from. Kodai Senga (11) is arguably Mucha’s most valuable trade piece. With a 2.98 ERA and over 200 K’s in his inaugural season, Senga has entrenched himself as a top 20 starter in many analyst’s eyes, but his high WHIP and walk rate make him volatile.
Maybe Mucha can get someone to buy in to Gausman in the third round if it looks like ace level pitching will once again come at a premium. Bohm in the 24th is a strong value given that he had his best season to date, but he still projects as a middle round player and that’s not an attractive trade piece in a league this shallow.
Ultimately I like the idea of trading Senga (11) for a piece like Big Desantis Energy’s Junior Caminero (FA). Swindell faces continued pressure after several seasons missing the playoffs, and dealing a high value rookie for a potential top of the line starter is the sort of deal that gives both sides what they want. The hard truth is that Mucha should be looking to deal anyone on his team for high upside talent in the lower rounds. Barring a sharp uptick in manager involvement and luck, this team is not built to win now, so it’s time to gamble on the future. It’s frankly what he should have been doing at the deadline last season, but it’s never too late to make the right decision.
Who is Getting Kept?
No one.
I’m just kidding. Yes this slate is not inspiring, but there is value to be had. As it stands right now, the players I would keep would be:
(3) Kevin Gausman
He’s a workhorse top of the line pitcher on a winning team. Firmly entrenched in the top 10 of starters, it is almost a definite that if Gausman gets thrown back he’ll be drafted in the second round, if not the first. So, he gets kept.
(11) Ketel Marte
Marte ended up at 75 on ESPN’s player rater in 2023, but even that is likely underselling his value. At a .276 average with 25 homers and over 600 plate appearances he has a high floor and a secure spot in the middle of a growing lineup of young stars. Is he exciting? No. Does he have value? Yes.
(11) Kodai Senga
Senga is a portrait of extremes. When he can command it his forkball is unhittable, and with high 90’s heat on his fastball and a better than average slider, he will regularly post double digit strikeout games in 2024. It’s his propensity for walks and getting hit hard when his control leaves him that limits his upside. But if he’s thrown back he will likely be drafted 5 rounds ahead of this value, so he stays.
Alec Bohm (24)
An unexciting but low risk pick here. Bohm will fill a corner infield spot reliably and costs next to nothing.
And that’s it. Robert in the second or Swanson in the fourth are at best breaking even, but potentially losses. Best case Mucha can flip Senga or Gausman for multiple controllable assets to fill out the final spots.
WHAT NEEDS TO GO RIGHT?
Pretty much everything. Mucha would need an early round pick in the draft to ensure a star player to build around, something his team currently lacks in spades. In addition to hitting on multiple strong draft picks he would likely need to draft well in the minor league draft, securing assets which graduate to the major leagues and make an impact this season. Senga would need to take a big step forward in the control department if he’s kept. Gausman would likely need to be traded for multiple strong keeper players.
It’s not a likely thing. More important than any of these though, Mucha would have to engage with the dirty work of The Process in a quality way, securing free agent wins, favorable trades, and complimentary line-up construction.
irl team analogue:
pittsburgh pirates
One or two interesting players, but front office fumbles make a playoff run highly unlikely.
*There is no comment section
