MI CASAS ES SU CASAS: IT TAKES TWO TO TANGO
Welcome to the third of a 12-part weekly write-up which will take us all the way to the start of Spring Training. Each Friday I will examine, in reverse order of last year’s regular season finish, each team’s situation as the postseason gets underway. I’ll break down the piece into three parts: What moves need to be made, Who is getting kept, and What needs to go right in order for that team to make the postseason in 2024.
All opinions are my own, therefore they are inherently worse than all other opinions and you should discount them immediately. No… wait… that’s the wrong script… Please don’t go.
what moves need to be made?
Patrick Weaver messaged me on July 31st 2023 in the evening. He was prepared to make a franchise shattering move.
“You sound like you want to do a fun thing,” he told me
What came next was a 10-player trade where Weaver dealt five strong contributors in exchange for the irreplaceable Ronald Acuna Jr. He had a vision, and it was wrapping up the two best outfielders in the sport for one magical season.
This season Acuna will be kept in the first round, and Judge will be kept in the second. They will only reside on Weaver’s team together for one summer, but oh what a magical summer it has the potential to be. Weaver is all in, and every move between today and opening day should be about punching that window as hard as possible. He’s off to a strong start with two top 20 outfielders (Acuna, Judge) lined up as keepers in a year where OF is shallower than it’s ever been. So what else needs to happen?
When you have something in the neighborhood of 90 homers locked down between your first two players and 60+ steals as well, the focus has to be making sure your pitching is up to snuff. Weaver won’t draft until the third round, and by then most of the top flight arms will likely be gone. Teams with a surplus of arms available for trade have already been making moves, with Martindell trading Glasnow and Peralta being made available by Topczewski. There is a strong case to be made that he should be looking to deal for a top of the rotation starter to anchor his staff and balance his team.
Perhaps the most intriguing option which makes sense would be to craft a deal around baseball’s number 2 prospect, Jackson Chourio. Chourio recently signed a deal with the Brewers buying out his arbitration years and starting his major league clock, making it highly likely he will start the season in the majors. Chourio’s early ADP in NFBC leagues has already approached the to 100 players, and may well continue to rise with a strong spring training performance. Weaver should capitalize on that hype, perhaps pair him with another controllable young player such as Jordan Walker or a mid-level pick, and make a run at a big arm. Chourio is a strong bet to be an all-star level contributor for years to come, but you don’t go out and get Acuna and Judge together to play it safe. Time to go big.
WHO IS GETTING KEPT?
The first two are stupid obvious of course, but after that things get muddier…
RONALD ACUNA JR (1)
Yup.
AARON JUDGE (2)
Also Yup.
YANDY DIAZ (19)
If you’re looking for the player not named Judge or Acuna on this team that most has the chance to truly erupt into a 40 homer threat, I wouldn’t sleep on Yandy. Diaz was in the top 5% in the leage in xwOBA, xSLG, Avg Exit Velocity, and Hard Hit %. He doesn’t chase, he walks a ton, and he’s hitting the ball as hard as he ever has. So what’s holding him back? Tale as old as time, he hits the ball on the ground way too much (over 50%). All the same though he nearly doubled his career high in homers last year. The power is in there, he just needs to let it out.
GUNNAR HENDERSON (23)
His batting average is a shade lower than you would like to see for a young player of his pedigree, but he blisters the ball when he makes contact and sits in the middle of a potent Oriole lineup. His profile will probably settle in as a .250 30+ homer 100+ RBI player, and at this round that’s a sure keeper.
GRAYSON RODRIGUEZ (24)
Was his first year as a starter disappointing? Yes. Is there potential for more due to his elite velocity and breaking pitches? Yes. Would I be recommending him over Jordan Walker and Spencer Torkelson if Weaver had a better pitching alternative? No. Take that as you will.
JACKSON CHOURIO (FA)
Chourio is a consensus top 2 prospect in baseball and will almost assuredly make the Brewers out of camp due to his new contract. He’s a strong keeper on hype alone, but that hype would be better served in a trade.
what needs to go right?
When your top two keepers are Judge and Acuna you have the luxury of letting things sort of take care of themselves. Yes both players have an injury history, but you could say that about a lot of studs. Barring the lazy answer of “stay healthy”, I think the biggest trap here is not building out a strong stable of starters. Pitching stats still account for half the categories, and while dominating hitting can get you most of the way, it would be a mistake to enter the draft with the only answer at starting pitching being Grayson Rodriguez, Kyle Bradish, or whoever is left in the third round (It won’t be Yamamoto). Weaver has several strong options for trade, and I would be surprised if he didn’t end up with a more reliable solution before draft day.
irl team analogue:
new york yankees
Two stud outfielders. One season only. No encores. No pressure.
