GRADE THE TRADE: THE DRAFT IS FOR FASCISTS
Tell mom to swing by the house, because it looks like someone left the stove on.
The newest member of the League of Medicore Gentle(wo)men has made a dramatic entrance with the first trade of 2024 and the third trade of the off-season, and it is a strange one. Did Topczewski fleece the newcomer like a dewy-eyed sheep? Did Sitko play the role of the naive newcomer to perfection to trick the former into a rough deal? Put your swim trunks on and hold your breath because it's time to dive feet first into this edition of Grade the Trade.
The trade:
Dan Topczewski trades Cody Bellinger (14) and 7th round pick to John Sitko for Luis Robert Jr (2) and Jordan Montgomery (12).
There is a popular philosophy when it comes to in-season fantasy trades that you always want to be on the side of the trade that ends up with the best player. However, you can throw that methodology right out when it comes to pre-draft trades with inflation values and draft picks attached. Off-season trades are primarily about either securing draft value or draft security. Draft value is created by acquiring players whose perceived draft value is significantly higher than the cost that you will keep them at. Draft security is created by locking down high-end players close to draft value who you reasonably believe may not be avaialable to you at your stage in the draft. Draft value is about creating flexibility while draft security is about creating a known foundation and “Getting your Guy".
It is clear that the owners involved in this deal approached it from different perspectives. Sitko attempted to create value while Topczewski looked for high-end security. Whichever of them did a better job in their respective lanes gets the better grade. So who succeeded? Let's start with the new guy.
cashman's cash outs:
Sitko is in a tough spot inheriting the worst team in the league. He doesn't have valuable trade chips to work with but he did what any strong owner does and located an owner who values his assets.
Luis Robert Jr and Jordan Montgomery didn't even feature in my piece on potential keepers for Sitko. Robert fell out of favor due to the fact Gausman would definitely be kept in the next round. Generally speaking I advocate against keeping multiple players close to true value in the first three rounds of the draft. Gausman's value was greater than Robert's relative to draft position so he gets the boot.
Montgomery had a strong showing with a 3.46 ERA and a career high 188 IP, however he's still just a “guy". He only struck out 7.9 batters per IP, an abysmally low number. In this age of deep pitching and high strikeouts that is not something I value much. He's an SP3 at best, and while the 12th round is a great pace to get an SP3 in this league, he's not indispensible.
So Sitko gave up pieces he didn't value in exchange for Bellinger, a polarizing player who bounced back last season but has concerning underlying stats. Couple that with the fact that at the time of this article he has not signed with a team, adding another layer of uncertaintly to his situation.
Having said that, Bellinger's keeper value of 14 in an outfield crop that is very shallow makes him extremely appealing. He profiles as an OF2 or high end OF3. By the time we reach the 14th round we'll be scraping the barrel of OF5. While bottom out potential is always there with Bellinger, his value and top 50 player upside make him a great risk in this space.
Wait... and Sitko gets a 7th round pick too?
Huh.
SITKO GRADE: A
I LIKE IAN ON TOPPER:
While Topczewski has a clearly superior team name, this deal is puzzling on a few levels.
Taken in a vacuum, Luis Robert Jr is a solid target to solidify the shallow OF position in the second round. However, Topper has 5 keepers in the first 6 rounds including Robert, which would be an unprecedented amount of players kept at the top end of the draft. Making a trade to get rid of one of your few “value" players in exchange for yet another player with a high cost is puzzling. What's even more puzzling is that Montgomery is not listed as a current considered keeper for Topper. The most likely reason would be that Topczewski intends to trade one or more of his high round keepers for a draft pick, freeing up a space for Montgomery.
This is an extremely risky strategy, especially since the high-end security player pool is already saturated with several high round players expected to be traded at that level. Trading Cole would go a long way towards creating draft flexilibity, but, as a wise owner once said, “You don't get credit for deals you haven't made yet".
Then we have the trade of the 7th round draft pick. In-season I would have said that a trade of Bellinger for Robert and Montgomery leaned significantly towards Topczewski. In the off-season though it is imperitive to bake in draft value when making this comparison. By trading Robert, Sitko now can draft another outfielder in the second round. Let's say he acquires Schwarber, who had over 40 homers last year. That coupled with Bellinger outranks Robert and Montgomery on its own. The freeing up of his high round draft picks is baked in value to these sorts of deals which can significantly sway the final grade.
If this was an in-season value I would say the 7th round pick being added in with Bellinger is reasonable. As it stands though it's a gross overpay. Additionally Topper now has only one draft pick in his first 7 rounds, and only 3 in his first ten. This severely limits his flexibility and makes a keeper bust incredibly damaging to his roster.
If he manages to trade Cole for a 7th round pick or higher I'll amend this grade to a C, but as it is…
