Winter meetings preview
The hot stove has been lit as the offseason began with two new rule changes and increasing trade talks and speculation.
"The grind never stops” --Vinson Mulvey Nearly two months after the League of Mediocre Gentle(wo)men crowned its thirteenth title, the stove of off-season activity has been lit. Rule proposals V and VI were passed without dissent, and the league will incorporate minor league keepers and a minor league draft for the first time in its history. Multiple owners have been linked to preliminary trade talks involving all types of draft pick compensation, with Elly Enchanted being particularly aggressive so far. The Fantasy “Winter Meetings” are approaching. With the spectre of off-season trades and keeper selections looming, I reached out to multiple owners to provide their insights on the hot-button issues of the offseason. While many others gave background information off the record, Vinson Mulvey, Richard Martindell Jr, Patrick Weaver, and Andrew Heller agreed to speak on the record regarding where things stand as the league enters its historic 15th season. Which team has the best keeper slate as of right now heading into the offseason?
Two names kept cropping up over and over in responses to this first question. Judge and Acuna. “While other teams might have deeper options, Pat’s top end is far better than anyone else with Acuna and Judge,” says Mulvey. “Gunnar and Yandy are great keepers too, and there’s enough there to fill out a solid six.” Heller agreed, stating, “Without diving too deep into values I think Pat might have the best 5 or 6 guys spread out without having to put one back with Judge, Acuna, Henderson, Diaz, and Walker.” “This is a tough question because the viewpoint for keepers is twofold,” says Martindell, “You either have great keepers because they’re low in the draft and have a bright future, in which case I believe in myself … or you have players who aren’t the lowest round but offer immediate win now potential in which I think Pat has the best with his Judge and Acuna wombo-combo,” Weaver was the only dissenting opinion, as he acknowledged the deep well of high-end talent which brought Mulvey his first league title. “The champion reigns. Unfortunately, Vinson's squad isn't just built on top-end draft talent but a mix of folks spread across the rounds. He has excellent capital to trade, too, and has shown time and time again that he gets top dollar for every transaction he makes. It's hard to think of another team who will enter the draft with a better slate. I LOVE mine, don't get me wrong, but my cornerstones are also rounds 1 and 2. If Vinson weren't such a trade maestro, I'd say mine and his would-be neck and neck,” he mused. Who is the biggest name you expect to be traded this winter?
It’s all eyes on Mulvey and his crop of first round overlaps as the offseason kicks off, and most owners acknowledged that. “Trea Turner,” says Heller, “Trade deadline piece so no emotional attachment to the long term. Going to be a 1st round keeper for the first time and got hot late in the season...” “Freddie Freeman,” remarks Martindell, “Vinson is going to sell that song for a mint and some dumb owner is going to pay too much for him because they’re afraid of missing out on either a first round player or just trading in general.” Weaver agreed with Martindell. “The safe answer is Freeman. I think Vinson keeps Mookie over him, and someone will trade for him while paying WAY too much.” Mulvey enters the offseason with an unprecedented four players who will have first round keeper values, in Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts, Trea Turner, and Freddie Freeman. Mulvey himself has acknowledged that while he looks to trade multiple of these players for whatever he can get, he will not be able to act until the draft order is set. There is no current date for the draft order’s release. Mulvey himself looked past his own likely moves and felt that Martindell is likely to act. “I expect Richard to trade (or at least try to trade) Elly de la Cruz and O’Neill Cruz,” he said. “Richard has a lot of keeper choices and I expect these guys to be the ones he looks to trade due to their high ceiling and interest to other teams and the uncertainty of how they would actually perform.” O’Neil Cruz spent the majority of the last season on the injured list with a broken ankle, and while Elly de la Cruz showed elite level tools in his major league debut, he also only batted .235 and struck out in a third of his at-bats. What owner is most on the hot seat to make big moves right now?
“It’s Vinson and it’s not close,” said Heller, “If he does nothing he sends back all that talent (referring to Mulvey’s four first round keepers). If he … doesn’t make any moves, it makes the draft very interesting,” While Heller focused on the immediate need of Mulvey to unload redundant draft picks, some owners took a view more in line with how some owners have fallen short repeatedly of expectations. “I think Brooke is honestly,” said Martindell, “Her team needs the most work and Ohtani’s injury really throws everything into haywire. Going into next year with her past keepers without an Ohtani is going to be incredibly rough looking.” The phenom two-way player is expected to be able to hit all year in 2024 but will not pitch. Questions still abound regarding what level of power he will have upon his return to the plate as other players such as Bryce Harper initially lacked in home runs after recovering from Tommy John surgery. Brooke’s better half, however, disagrees. “Richard’s team, without a doubt,” Weaver said. “Multiple teams feel some heat to keep up with Vinson, but Richard has many things against him. Questionable trades, a lackluster finish, and a less-than-stellar trade market all add up to him needing to pull of some great deals,” Martindell’s team has been mired in an extended playoff drought, as he has not made the postseason since his runner-up finish in 2018. Weaver remarked that other teams should be feeling the pressure too. “Ian’s team has the most to prove if he can retool and remain competitive next year,” he remarked. Shaw’s team stumbled to a runner-up finish after a dominant regular season in which he traded away two of the top keepers in the game in Acuna and Strider, leaving his prospects for the future questionable. “Finally I think Dan’s team is ripe to do something drastic. He had immediate success, will feel pressure to replicate it, and might do something truly off the wall.” Weaver speculated. Mulvey agreed with Weaver regarding the pressure on Martindell, but threw another name into the fray. “Richard and James are both on the hot seat this year. Last year either team made the playoffs was 2018 (not counting the mickey mouse season) and both have high expectations for their teams. While it may result in them being risk averse and not making any moves at all, I think a shakeup needs to happen for one or both of them.” he said. How do you think the minor league draft changes team strategy this winter?
Most owners believed that strategy in the short term would not change as the owners grapple with a new rule in which they engage in the first ever minor league draft and are allowed to keep three minor leaguers in addition to the standard six. “I don’t think it will change strategy much at all this off season,” Mulvey said confidently, “The top end prospects are already rostered, and while some teams might be willing to trade draft picks for them, I certainly won’t be. I think teams will let things play out and see what the best strategy is, not overreact and give up too much for a prospect.” Weaver was the only notable dissent, believing the new rules would mean minor leaguers are going to enter the trade market this winter. “I think it makes minor leaguers more valuable and more tradeable. I also think it gives my team a massive advantage because of my stable of minor leaguers is as if I already got a first run at the draft all by myself. I’m not sure if I’ll make any trades, but I love the position my team is in for not wasting major league keeper slots while retaining the talent,” he said Who is the way too early pick to win it all in 2024?
“Myself of course,” ended up being the answer almost across the board, however there were a few notable divergent opinions. “I begrudgingly think it’s going to be Vinson with the repeat,” lamented Weaver. “Until someone can demonstrably slow him down, he will continue to win.; It’s not just that nobody has done that, nobody even has a plan in motion to try. I fully expect it to be another year where he gets 3 MVP candidates for a guy in AA and a washed-up catcher,” he said, his frustration mirroring that of many owners I spoke to. Mulvey managed to trade for three separate first round caliber talents over the course of the 2023 season, acquiring Jose Ramirez from Martindell, Freddie Freeman from Johnson, and Trea Turner from Heller. All three players project to be top 15 ranked players for 2024. Mulvey himself agreed with Weaver’s analysis, commenting that he has been, “setting the league meta recently and has been able to stay ahead of the ‘old heads’ of the league.” Martindell disagreed strongly, stating, “This is a dumb question and you should feel dumb for asking it. Because it’s obviously me. I’m winning it all. I expect others to say the same.” And although his confidence was refreshing among a general tone of frustration coming from owners lamenting the strength of Mulvey’s slate of keepers, there was a persistent undercurrent of dismay at some owners for fueling the reigning Champ’s rise through poor deals and unforced errors. “It’s frustrating,” grumbled one owner. “I can only hope everyone stops making these deals out of desperation, because they’re rarely in good faith. These aren’t usually deals where both sides win, they’re deals where Vinson wins or he goes home, because he has the luxury of walking away if he doesn’t get what he wants, and no one seems to be able to see that,” Another owner took umbrage with Martindell’s bravado, stating, “I don’t think he (Richard) has the tools to make that happen,” he said. “(He) will have one of the worst keeper slates, and is at risk of being a poor draft away from an 11th-place finish next year,” As owners sink their teeth into their Thanksgiving feasts this evening though, it’s clear that though Mulvey can count himself thankful for his good fortune, good preparation, and wealth of talent, he faces a league more wary going forward as he begins his title defense. “Way too soon to tell...” Heller said wryly. And he is right. Four months until Draft Day. 